NASDAQ reaches 20,000 point milestone! Tesla led a group of tech giants to reach new highs. Has the Christmas market started?

Historically, every year on the seven trading days after Christmas, that is, the five trading days at the end of the year and the first two trading days of the following year, investors tend to go long, and US stocks are likely to rise. This seven-day market is called the “Christmas market.” The data shows that in the past 70 years, the S&P 500 index has an 80% chance of rising in these seven trading days.

Futu News07:46

Wall Street interprets CPI: Without changing the “gradual easing” of the Federal Reserve, strong core inflation supports the suspension of interest rate cuts in January

Analysis suggests that the CPI, which meets expectations, demonstrates that the cooling of inflation has basically stagnated in recent months. While this is not enough to disrupt the year-end bull market in U.S. stocks, it also means that an interest rate cut next week is not guaranteed, especially with the potential inflation upward risks brought by Trump's tariffs and fiscal expansion next year drawing attention. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries first fell and then rose.

wallstreetcn07:39

Three expected differences of Trump 2.0.

Source: Xue Tao Macro Notes Author: Tianfeng Macro Song Xuetao. The market's perception of Trump's second term has formed increasingly fragmented expectations in terms of policy implementation and specific policy impacts. Currently, the market universally expects better outcomes next year, which requires caution. In the first month after the election, from the unexpectedly strong cabinet selections to the sudden announcement of considering tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the uncertainty and complexity of Trump 2.0 are fully demonstrated. This increases the difficulty for the market to predict the implementation and impact of Trump 2.0 policies, creating some increasingly fragmented expectation gaps. The first type of expectation gap is contradictory policies leading to...

Xuetao's macro notes.43minutes ago

Almost 100%! Wall Street is convinced that the Federal Reserve will definitely cut interest rates next week.

Analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve will not deviate from the path of interest rate cuts in December, and there is reason to remain optimistic about the downward trend in inflation, with the most stubborn housing inflation normalizing, and seasonal factors possibly fading in the inflation reports over the coming months.

wallstreetcn10:55

Will the new FTC chairman ease regulations for Google? On Wednesday, U.S. technology stocks surged collectively thanks to his contributions.

① On Wednesday, U.S. technology stocks rose sharply, and in addition to the frequent good news from tech giants, Trump's appointment of Andrew Ferguson as the new chairman of the Federal Trade Commission also sparked optimism; ② Ferguson is one of the five current commissioners of the committee, and the market expects that his appointment may lead to an end to the antitrust investigation against Google's parent company, Alphabet.

cls.cn11:48

The "Wall Street Oracle" predicts that the U.S. stock market will rise then fall next year, with Trump and Musk posing risks for the decline.

① Tom Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat, known as the "Wall Street Oracle," predicts a mid-year target of 7000 points for the S&P 500 Index in 2025, with a year-end target of 6600 points, reflecting an overall increase of 8%. ② He believes that supporting factors for the US stock market next year include interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and Trump's tax cut policy, but Musk's Government Efficiency Department and Trump's tariffs may hurt the USA GDP.

cls.cn11:08