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S&P 500 Index Newsroom
Impending non-farm payrolls! The strong dollar is hard to shake, will the rise of Gold be hindered?
Non-farm payrolls may pose challenges for the Federal Reserve in further rate cuts. The potential for Gold to rise has increased, but a Call breakout has not yet been confirmed; how tonight's non-farm payrolls can create enough impact on the dollar...
Goldman Sachs "takes the pulse" of non-farm payrolls: The "sweet spot" is between an increase of 0.1 million to 0.125 million.
Goldman Sachs stated that the market may not like surprises, and strong data could exert upward pressure on USA Treasury yields.
Bank of America: The S&P 500 Index may experience a decline in the first quarter, but may still record positive returns for the entire year.
On January 10, Gronhui reported that Bank of America analysts expect the S&P 500 Index to show less encouraging performance this year after achieving excellent returns for two consecutive years, although it may still record positive returns for the entire year. The index rose 23.3% last year, and the cumulative increase over the past two years is the best since 1997-1998, mainly benefiting from strong economic performance, slowing inflation, and the rise of AI. Led by Stephen Suttmeier, the Bank of America analysis team believes that the index's past outstanding performance is unlikely to continue, and this year lacks any particular stimulus factors, instead being filled with negative factors.
The biggest obstacle to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025: inflation and Trump.
The anti-inflation process has stagnated, and meanwhile, under Republican control, several Congressional agendas will further increase inflation.
Be careful of a significant pullback in the U.S. stock market! Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm for 2025: three major risks loom.
Goldman Sachs warned on Thursday that U.S. stocks will face a series of risks in 2025, which increase the likelihood of a significant market correction at some point this year; The three main risks are: a sharp rise in U.S. stocks in 2024, overly high U.S. stock valuations, and high or increased market concentration risk within the investment portfolio.
A report from Bank of America warns that the S&P 500 Index may show limited gains this year.
A team led by USA Bank Analyst Stephen Suttmeier published a report stating that the S&P 500 Index may become a victim of its own success this year, warning that the risk of a lackluster performance has increased. The index rose 23.3% last year, achieving the best two-year performance since 1997-1998, supported by a relatively healthy USA economy, easing inflation pressures, and sustained enthusiasm for AI. However, the report warns that the S&P 500 Index fell 2.5% in December last year, failing to see a seasonal increase, posing a "risk" for January, the first quarter, and the first half of this year.
Express News | U.S. Equity Index futures have widened their declines, with Nasdaq futures down over 0.7% and S&P 500 Index futures down nearly 0.6%.
Futu Morning Brief | Is there a signal to "pause interest rate cuts"? Federal Reserve officials speak out collectively; Elon Musk live streams at CES, discussing ambitious plans, Tesla's robots are set to expand production by a hundredfold.
HSBC expects the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index to rise by 21% this year and has raised its year-end target; Tencent has continuously reduced its shareholding in WEIMOB INC and UBTECH, cashing out 1.67 billion Hong Kong dollars, with WEIMOB INC responding.
Goldman Sachs strategists warn: The pricing of U.S. stocks is at a "perfect level" and is likely to experience a pullback.
Goldman Sachs' Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned that as investors digest the uncertainty surrounding rising Bond yields, overvaluations, and further interest rate cuts, the current "perfect" earnings market environment may be difficult to sustain.
1/10 [Strong and Weak Materials]
[Bullish and Bearish Factors] Bullish factors: 1 USD = 158.10-20 JPY, active Share Buyback, Tokyo Stock Exchange's request for corporate value enhancement. Bearish factors: Nikkei average declined (39605.09, -375.97), USA market closed, Chicago Nikkei Futures decreased (39545, -15), VIX index increased (18.07, +0.37), US long-term interest rates rose, prolonged combat in Ukraine and Israel, concerns over China's economic recession. Points to note: January Single Option special settlement index (SQ) calculation, household survey (1
Tonight's non-farm payroll report is coming! Signals of a slowdown in employment growth have emerged, and the health status of the labor market will soon be revealed.
With the recent continuous rise in the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields, the market is highly focused on the upcoming US non-farm employment data for December, which will be announced at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday.
Quietly, the Federal Reserve has given more attention to this "new" inflation Indicators.
Including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, senior officials of the Federal Reserve are increasingly focusing on a lesser-known inflation Index—the market-based version of the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index, which excludes a range of service industry data that its collectors cannot measure directly and must estimate. Currently, this Index is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, potentially indicating that the threshold for further interest rate cuts is lower than the market anticipates.
The outlook for Trump's policies is uncertain, the Federal Reserve is cautious, and this year the voting committee unanimously supports gradual interest rate cuts.
This year, the voting member and President of the Boston Federal Reserve, Collins, stated that the economic outlook is very uncertain, and requires a gradual and patient approach to interest rate cuts, expecting the number of cuts this year to be reduced to two from previous expectations; another voting member this year, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, Schmidt, stated that if economic data improves, it supports gradual rate cuts; the Federal Reserve is close to the neutral interest rate, nearly achieving the dual mandate of inflation and employment, and further balance sheet reduction is needed; the 2026 voting member, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Harker, stated support for further rate cuts this year, but the timing depends on the data, and action should be paused for now; the 2027 voting member, President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, stated that it is the term premium, not inflation, that drives up long-term interest rates.
Stock Futures Slip as Wall Street Braces for Friday's Jobs Report
How high are the valuations of the U.S. stock market? They have reached the level of "irrational exuberance."
Bloomberg pointed out that the current valuation of the US stock market has reached its highest level since 2002, a level that is exactly the same as when Greenspan issued his warning of "irrational exuberance" in 1996.
A 180-degree turn! Goldman Sachs' latest warning: U.S. stocks are priced too "perfectly," and a correction is imminent.
Goldman Sachs issued a new warning on Thursday (January 9): As investors digest the rising Bonds yields, overvalued valuations, and the uncertainty of further interest rate cuts, the current perfect money-making market environment may be difficult to sustain.
Philadelphia Fed President: Will lower interest rates as planned, do not "act hastily."
Hack pointed out that the Federal Reserve is still on the path of lowering interest rates, "I will not deviate from this path or turn back."
Minister Ma candidly stated that reducing federal spending by 2 trillion is an overly idealistic goal.
① Musk stated that the proposed "Department of Government Efficiency" in the USA may not be able to achieve its preset highest goal of cutting federal government spending by 2 trillion dollars; ② Musk emphasized in an exclusive interview that this is not an admission of failure in advance, and he can still help Trump achieve "epic results."
The S&P 500 Index has released a bullish signal for the entire year, due to TA.
Analysts from Fundstrat and Bank of America have stated that this Wednesday (January 8) is the last day of the first five trading days window of 2025. If the S&P 500 Index can close above 5,881.63 points, it will send a Call signal for the market for the entire year.
Fed's Harker: Fed Still on Rate-cut Path, Future Moves Driven by Data