Be alert to non-farm payroll undermining interest rate expectations at 8:30 pm tonight!
Will tonight's non-farm data help boost interest rate expectations as multiple weak economic data this week have boosted them in turn?
Will there be any surprises in the non-farm data? The first major US data release day of the second half of the year has arrived.
If we were to discuss the most unpredictable economic indicators in the US market this year, non-farm payroll data would definitely make the list. Tonight marks the first non-farm evening of the second half of the year. What kind of surprises will this night bring? Will the data performance be unexpected once again?
"Trump 2.0" may be coming soon! Which major assets will "dance" and which will "lie flat"?
As traders assume that Trump's return to the White House is a basic market expectation, how should investors act?
Tonight, the Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released. Employment growth in the United States may slow down significantly, and the economy may enter a recession.
There are signs that the labor market in the USA is slowing down, and it may even deteriorate, so the June non-farm employment report is more significant.
The higher the probability of Trump's election, the more the market will rise with joy.
The correlation between the US stock market and Trump's election victory is becoming stronger, but not because of bullishness on Trump's policies, but rather the market likes "certainty".
Biden in danger? Disney heir and other "bigwigs" are pressuring him: no re-election, no money!
Abigail Disney plans to suspend donations to Democrats before Biden drops out; Biden says he has no plans to withdraw from the race.
Four key points are drawing attention to the "exceptionally important" non-farm data on Friday.
Analysts point out that the slow increase in unemployment rate in the United States may trigger the 'Sam Rule'.
Futu Morning News | Is the market pricing in the possibility of "Biden dropping out over the weekend"? Biden: I will not drop out; Short sellers get wrecked! Tesla's short sellers lost $3.5 billion in two days.
The Asia-Pacific stock market is booming: Taiwan stocks and Indian stocks hit record highs, Japanese stocks are nearing highs; The Federal Reserve hinted that it is not yet ready to cut interest rates, and bitcoin fell to a two-month low; Xpeng and NIO Inc responded to additional EU tariffs.
U.S. Stock Futures Tread Water As Nonfarm Payrolls Approach
U.S. stock index futures moved little in holiday-thinned trade on Thursday evening, with focus turning squarely towards key nonfarm payrolls data for more cues on interest rates.
The worst case scenario of the US debt crisis: if Trump orders a default on debt payments!
Nomura and other analysts pointed out that if the United States chooses to default, the credibility of the US dollar will be damaged, which may lead investors to demand higher risk premiums for US bonds, resulting in a sharp increase in government interest payments. Without a large-scale fiscal overhaul, the Federal Reserve loses its monetary policy independence, and the government implements strict financial regulation to try to push real US bond yields into deep negative values to settle federal debt.
Will a big mystery of the US economy be revealed soon? The answer may lie in the non-farm payroll data!
Economists debate: Is the US labor market normalizing, or is it an indication that the economy is about to slow down?
In the next three weeks, the "Trump trade" will be crucial.
JPMorgan stated that if Biden's support rate in swing states falls significantly in the next three weeks, he will face huge pressure to withdraw. If Biden is forced to step down, the preferred replacement is Vice President Kamala Harris.
How does Wall Street predict the strongest global theme for the second half of the year, with expectations of a rate cut, election suspense, and the trend of US stocks?
As the global central bank interest rate cuts arrive, major events such as inflation rebound, the U.S. presidential election, and earnings season tests may all intensify volatility risks, but they also bring many opportunities for positioning.
The US Federal Reserve has been slow to cut interest rates, and the size of the US money market has surpassed 6.15 trillion US dollars, reaching a new high.
In the week ending on the 2nd, there was a inflow of approximately $51.2 billion into the US fund market, the largest inflow in three months. Some analysts pointed out that as long as the Federal Reserve continues to hold steady, funds will continue to flow into currency funds.
The minutes of the June meeting mentioned three times that the Fed really lacks confidence in rate cuts.
Some FOMC members pointed out that if the job vacancy rate drops to 4.5%, it may have already approached or exceeded certain thresholds, meaning that the future unemployment rate will rise more sharply. Most members believe that as the economy gradually cools down, the huge economic pressures faced by low-income households are a major concern for the Fed.
Express News | Reminder: The US stock market will be closed on July 4th for Independence Day.
The 'best contra-indicator' for the U.S. stock market has resigned.
JPMorgan's Chief Strategist Marko Kolanovic initially bullish sentiment led to a big drop in the US stock market. However, when he turned bearish, the US stock market rose sharply, making him a perfect "contrarian indicator".
Kaiyuan Macro: AI will drive the US stock market up another 27%, but we need to beware of complacency leading to sorrow!
Kaitu Macro's chief economist pointed out that AI is a bubble that is doomed to burst, but it will continue to expand until then.
Rumors of Biden dropping out this weekend? The market is pricing in this possibility, with the return of "Trump trade".
The global market has begun to quickly adjust investment portfolios in preparation for the "Biden withdrawal" and the return of the "Trump trade", including a strong US dollar, steep US bond curve, as well as the rise of banks, medical and energy stocks.
Beware of Trump! Goldman Sachs: Tariff plan may cause the Fed to raise interest rates five times.
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said that former US President Trump's comprehensive tariff plan may lead to inflation in the country, prompting the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates, with rates expected to rise a cumulative 130 basis points.