TBF240920P23000
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ProShares Short 20+ Yr Treasury Newsroom
US Stock Market Outlook: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is coming tonight; Pre-market soars nearly 53%! US space concept stock LUNR secures nearly $5 billion contract.
Apple has been surpassed by Xiaomi again after 3 years, falling to the third largest mobile phone brand in the world in August; United States Steel rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading, and the CEO said he is confident that the acquisition deal will eventually be approved by the US government; Another major bank is strongly bullish on gold: it will rise to $2900 next year.
What risks will the market face if the Federal Reserve doesn't cut interest rates by 50 basis points?
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the current market pricing is aggressive, with the risk of expectations falling short, which may have a negative impact on market sentiment and asset prices. The pace of future interest rate cuts may also be slower than market expectations. The market will focus on the released "dot plot" for more specific guidance from the Federal Reserve on future interest rate cuts and scope.
Bullish on US stocks | More policy support! Li Auto Inc. jumped over 12% overnight; Rate cut expectations boost credit card companies to hit new historical highs.
Heavy investment! Blackrock joined hands with Microsoft to bet on the AI track, reaching the $900 mark overnight and hitting a new historical high, with a 1.04% increase; target price was raised by major bank analysts! Applovin, a mobile advertising technology company, soared more than 6% overnight, surging more than 40% in the past 5 trading days, and has risen more than 200% so far this year, creating a new historical high again.
Daily options tracking | Bullish signals everywhere! Intel's multiple call options have doubled in premium and surged; Gold ETF trading is hot, with the call-to-put ratio climbing to 63%.
Tesla's trading volume yesterday surged 30% compared to the previous trading day, reaching 1.22 million shares. The call option chain skyrocketed to 65%. Among the options chain, the long positions occupy the main position, with the largest volume being the call option with a strike price of $235 expiring this Friday, with a volume of 0.1 million shares.
Morgan Stanley fund: When will the convertible bond market reach a turning point?
Overall, the long-term value of convertible bond assets is gradually becoming apparent.
Tonight, the world is paying close attention! The "giant ship" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will officially set sail.
①For the global financial markets, tonight is destined to be a sleepless night... ②As scheduled, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce the September interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday; ③It is generally expected in the industry that the Federal Reserve will announce the first rate cut in 4 years at this meeting, with little suspense, but at the same time, this is also the most 'mysterious' or uncertain Federal Reserve interest rate night in recent years.
The historically 'most difficult to predict' Federal Reserve meeting is here! Dalio supports the CEO of Morgan Stanley: the magnitude of the interest rate cut is not important.
① Dalio emphasized that in the long run, the Fed's actions this week will ultimately "have no impact"; ② According to him, based on the overall situation of the US economy, a slight interest rate cut by the Fed this week, with a magnitude of 25 basis points, is appropriate.
How much will the Federal Reserve cut tonight? New Bond King: 50 basis points, Dalio: 25 basis points, Damon: None of this matters.
Before, the new bond king called for support for a 50 basis point rate cut, the Fed is already 'behind the curve'; while Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, stated that 'a 25 basis point rate cut is the right move', JPMorgan CEO Dimon has taken a 'cool' attitude: 'Whether it's a 25 basis point cut or a 50 basis point cut, this move 'will not be earth-shattering'.
The Fed's interest rate cut is coming tonight! Wall Street economists: It will start the era of dollar depreciation.
On Thursday morning Beijing time, the global market will witness a significant moment: the announcement of the September interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. Point72 Asset Management's strategist and economist Sofia Delrosso believes that this rate cut by the Fed will be a major moment, marking the official entry of the US dollar into a downward trend and providing a boost to the economies in other parts of the world.
On the eve of the 'first cut', there is a huge divergence in the market! 'New Bond King' Gundlach bets on a 50 basis point rate cut.
① Goldman Sachs is betting that the Fed will start a rate-cutting cycle with a 50 basis point cut; ② "I think they will cut rates by 50 basis points - this seems excessive," he added. "The Fed is far behind the curve and they should take unified action."
Amazing! The Biden administration's budget deficit in August set a new record for this year. Analysts say that the interest on US Treasury bonds will exceed 1 trillion US dollars for the first time.
Market analysts say that the Biden administration's August deficit hit a record high for the year, and the interest on US government debt exceeded 1 trillion dollars for the first time.
Futu Morning News | Rate cut countdown! US stocks continue to break records; Bank of America: Long the seven giants of US stocks is still the most crowded trade.
"New美联储通讯社": The situation is complex, and there are still doubts about the magnitude of the Fed's first rate cut; if the Fed's first cut is done "properly", the record-breaking betting on a significant rate cut may face huge risks; Apple's iPhone 16 series pre-order sales in the first weekend fell short of expectations, analysts: the long-term outlook remains optimistic.
Schroder Investment: It is necessary to adopt diverse sources of income in a tense and uncertain financial market. Crediting and high dividend stocks can effectively supplement.
This summer, the Bank of Japan will raise the benchmark interest rate to 0.25% by the end of July 2024, causing tension and uncertainty in the financial market, especially triggering a domino effect in the stocks and fixed-income markets.
Top 20 transaction volume | Microsoft rose nearly 1%, planning to buy back up to 60 billion US dollars and increase dividend; Walmart fell more than 2%, has cleared all the shares of Dada holdings.
Microsoft, the top trading volume in the US stock market on Tuesday, fell by 1.02%, with a trading volume of $26.993 billion. Tesla, the second place, rose by 0.48%, with a trading volume of $15.367 billion. Apple, the third place, rose by 0.22%, with a trading volume of $9.84 billion.
Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Could Cut Deep -- Market Talk
Treasury Yields Rise As U.S. Indicators Show Strength -- Market Talk
US stocks in early trading | The three major indexes rose collectively, Chinese concept stocks and technology stocks strengthened collectively, Li Auto Inc rose nearly 9%, Tesla rose over 3%.
USA retail sales exceeded expectations in August, indicating that the consumer situation in the USA remains healthy. The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting today and announce the meeting results tomorrow. Wedbush brokerage stated that AI stocks like Nvidia will benefit from the Fed's rate cut.
Preview of US stocks | August retail sales data exceeds expectations, three major futures indices slightly rise; Bullish news frequently! Intel pre-market up nearly 7%.
Microsoft is giving out "red envelopes": dividend increase of 10%, planning to repurchase up to 60 billion US dollars; "New Fed Communication Agency" reiterated uncertainty: the magnitude of the first interest rate cut is still suspenseful.
SA Sentiment: Will the Fed Cut Rates by 50 or 25 Basis Points?
The market expects a 50 basis point rate cut, which is not enough! US lawmakers have sent a joint letter to Powell calling for a 75 basis point rate cut.
The futures prices on Monday reflected that investors expected a 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed this week, with a probability of close to 60%. Blackrock said the market's pricing of the rate cut cycle was a bit overdone, while a joint letter from Democratic senators warned that being too cautious about the rate cut would unnecessarily expose the economy to the risk of a recession.