Just two days! Rate cut of 50 basis points expectation shattered, 10-year US Treasury yield back above 4%.
①On Monday this week, the sharp decline in the US Treasury bond market further intensified, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond returning above the 4% level, reaching the highest level since August; ②Due to the unexpectedly strong US employment report released last Friday, traders were forced to reevaluate their predictions for the outlook of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
"Hot non-farm payroll data suppresses the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the 'global assets pricing anchor' returns to 4%."
The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points has plummeted, leading to intensified selling of U.S. Treasury bonds, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to break through the important 4% level; the market bets that the interest rate cut before the end of the year will be less than 50 basis points.
Futu Morning Post | Breaking news! The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. today, A-shares will open today; join the call on the Chinese stock market! Citigroup: There is still huge room for growth.
Overseas investors are pouring into Chinese stocks, with related funds attracting billions of dollars to set a new record; senior officials of the Federal Reserve temporarily withhold buying, eye-catching non-farm payroll data: overall risk balance slightly leaning towards labor market facing headwinds.
US stocks closed with the three major indices falling by about 1%, while nvidia rose over 2% against the market; Chinese concept stocks index saw a "V"-shaped reversal, with Li Auto rising by over 4%.
The only remaining Wall Street giant Citigroup, which still expects a 50 basis point rate cut in November, has also thrown in the towel. The market has reduced the Fed rate cut expectations to less than 50 basis points by the end of the year.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On October 7th, 669.38K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.17 Million Open Interest
On October 7th ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 669.38K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 51.1% of
After the unexpectedly strong non-farm data, bond traders are preparing to deal with the scenario of the US economy not landing.
The unexpectedly strong September non-farm employment report in the USA has led to a sharp rise in US bond yields, making the 'no landing' scenario once again a hot topic in the bond market. The 'no landing' scenario is constraining the Fed's room for interest rate cuts, further dampening the buying frenzy for US bonds.