The sell-off of US Treasury bonds is impacting global markets! Will the market shift from overvaluation to undervaluation with the Fed cutting interest rates?
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, traders originally expected at least another 25 basis point cut this year. However, current trading in the swap market indicates a significantly increased possibility that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in the remaining two meetings this year. Analysts indicate that investors have shifted from overestimating rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to underestimating them, and "the pendulum has swung in the other direction".
Markets Are Moving in Mysterious Ways - and Wall Street Is Struggling to Explain Why
A week of soaring US bond yields, with every market hedging, but US stocks held firm.
This week, US bonds were sold off, with yields rising across the board, however, the US stock market showed resilience. Analysis indicates that the main driving factors for stock market returns remain ample liquidity, loose policies, as well as good economic and earnings growth. The rise in bond yields may not necessarily have a negative impact on the stock market rebound.
Major changes may be coming to the US stock market! NYSE plans to extend trading hours, how significant will the impact be?
Wall Street analysts say that extending trading hours may mean financial companies need to strengthen trading during the early morning and evening. Prices may fluctuate more during extended trading hours, providing traders with opportunities to take advantage of these trades.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On October 25th, 411.04K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.59 Million Open Interest
On October 25th ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 411.04K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 38.45% of
US stocks early trading | The three major indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq hitting a new all-time high intraday; technology stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and cryptos all rising across the board, with Tesla and Nvidia up more than 2%.
On the evening of the 25th Beijing time, the US stock market continued to rise in early trading on Friday, with technology stocks leading the gains. Tesla continued yesterday's upward trend. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond slightly declined. The market continues to focus on US stock earnings reports, economic data, the presidential election, and the Fed's interest rate path. US durable goods orders in September fell by 0.8% month-on-month but were better than expected.
The usa election has entered the final sprint stage, and the market is on high alert! Will these sectors benefit regardless of who wins?
In this scenario, traders are also starting to flock to defensive sectors to hedge against volatility. Regardless of Trump or Harris winning, these stocks may deliver decent performance and serve as a 'safe haven' for election trading.
US stock market outlook | The three major futures indexes rose slightly, with Chinese concept stocks generally rising; as tesla soared, "Wood Sister" took the opportunity to sell $22 million worth of shares.
Taiwan Semiconductor rose more than 1% pre-market, and prices for sub-5nm next year may increase again; Spirit Airlines surged nearly 13% pre-market, planning to sell planes and lay off employees to reduce costs; Apple's smart phone market share in China returned to the top 5! The iPhone 16 is expected to kick off a new upgrade cycle.
Daily options tracking | Achieved the best single-day performance in over 11 years! Tesla's multiple call options earned more than 20 times; trading is hot! SoFi, super micro computer put options volume surged.
Nvidia's options volume yesterday was 2.64 million contracts, with call options accounting for 64.5% of the total. The highest volume was for end-of-day calls with a strike price of $140, reaching 0.23 million contracts, with an open interest of 0.08 million contracts.
gtja: Why is the US dollar rising?
The resilience of the US economy is an important factor in maintaining the strength of the US dollar, and the Citi Economic Surprise Index reflects recent US economic data improving beyond expectations.
Don't Rule Out a Market Panic. How to Stress-Test Your Portfolio Before the Election
The deep logic behind the sharp drop in US Treasury bonds is hidden in the speech of this senior official of the Federal Reserve.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan: The sharp drop in US Treasury bonds is due to tight market financing conditions caused by balance sheet reduction, and the market needs to "tolerate normal, moderate, and temporary pressure"; improving market liquidity through the Fed's repurchase clearing mechanism seems to have limited effectiveness at the moment. BofA Merrill Lynch added the "key points" missing from Logan's speech: if the debt ceiling is once again reached, the balance of the Treasury General Account (TGA) will decrease, which is a key signal inhibiting the financing market and will affect market confidence in US Treasury bonds and other assets.
Warning bells ring before the election! usa 1-year sovereign CDS rises to near one-year high.
①On Thursday, although the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen from a three-month high, the cautious atmosphere in the US bond market is still strong; ②Due to the economic policies of both presidential candidates potentially leading to a further expansion of the US fiscal deficit and increasing the burden of sovereign debt, the US 1-year sovereign CDS has now risen to its highest level in nearly a year.
Futu Morning Post | Surged overnight! Tesla soared by 22%, Musk's wealth increased by $26 billion; Initial jobless claims in the USA unexpectedly declined to pre-hurricane levels.
Federal Reserve voting committee member Hammack stated that although the progress in reducing inflation in recent months has improved, the work against inflation is not yet complete; European Central Bank board member Nagel said that the ECB should not be too hasty in cutting interest rates and should still maintain flexibility.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On October 24th, 464.68K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.57 Million Open Interest
On October 24th ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 464.68K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 48.93% of
Investor Sentiment Will Remain Vulnerable Going Into Election, Fed Cuts, Geopolitics
Bond Market 'Sniffing Out Trump Win' Contributes to 10-year Yield Visiting 3-month High
Higher Treasury Yields 'Paring Back' Fed Rate Cut Expectations
U.S. stock early trading | Tesla soared more than 16% after earnings, with its stock price briefly rising above $250; Cryptocurrency stocks surged, with MicroStrategy up over 6% and Coinbase up over 5%.
On the evening of the 24th Beijing time, tesla's stock price soared after the performance was announced. The market continues to focus on the US stock earnings and the prospects of the Fed's interest rate cuts.
The world's largest asset management: The possibility of a\n"difficult birth" of the US election results is underestimated!
BlackRock states that overly intense presidential elections in the usa could lead to controversial results, but the market has not priced in this scenario.