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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Newsroom
US stock market early trading | Trump's media technology group triggered another circuit breaker during the session, now down 10%; china concept stocks fall, alibaba, pdd holdings down more than 1%
Meta fell nearly 3%, the metaverse division continued to suffer serious losses in the third quarter, raising the full-year capital expenditure guidance; Estee Lauder narrowed its decline to 18%, the company withdrew its 2025 fiscal year outlook and lowered its dividend.
The Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicators unexpectedly accelerated, prompting calls for a 'pause in interest rate cuts' in the market.
In September, the so-called core personal consumption expenditure price index (core PCE), excluding volatile food and energy items, increased by 0.3% from the previous month, and rose by 2.7% compared to the same period last year.
US Stock Market Outlook | The US core PCE annual rate in September remained unchanged from the previous month, with the three major futures indexes maintaining a downward trend; Increased competition in AI causing market concerns? microsoft, Meta shares f
Bank of Japan Governor: Will not be affected by political turbulence, will continue to raise interest rates if the economic and price outlook is achieved; Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio: Both US presidential candidates are unsettling.
Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Slow With Unemployment Steady
Daily options update | Bearish 'big gift'! One put option on super micro computer makes a whopping 84 times profit; 'Trump trade' fizzles out? Trump Media Group's put/call ratio is 45%
Pre-earnings trading volume surged! The trading volume of Meta options nearly doubled to 0.6 million contracts compared to the previous trading day, with put options accounting for 60%. On the options chain, there is tension between long and short positions. The highest volume of call options, expiring this Friday with a strike price of $600, was 0.016 million contracts, with an open interest of 7 thousand contracts.
Be careful, will the Capitol Hill riot happen again? Is the dominance of the US dollar in danger?
Some Wall Street veterans warn that if a controversial election result leads to another riot, confidence in the US dollar and US government bonds may be pushed to the brink of collapse......
The Fed cut interest rates significantly, why did mortgage loan rates in the USA 'rise instead of fall'?
Analysis believes that, on the one hand, it is due to the surge in implied volatility of USA Treasury options, investors facing the risk of borrowers repaying early need a higher yield as compensation. On the other hand, the Option Adjusted Spread (OAS) of MBS is rising, investors are demanding additional returns to compensate for MBS risks.
U.S. Treasury Department's Major Quarterly Refinancing Announcement: Maintaining the same long-bond auction size and guidance unchanged.
The US Treasury Department maintains the quarterly auction size of its long-term debt unchanged, with quarterly refinancing set at $125 billion, and reiterates its guidance that there will be no increase in issuance size 'at least in the next few quarters,' all in line with market expectations. However, some strategists warn that this is the Biden administration's final refinancing plan, and the outcome of next week's election may bring changes to US debt management strategies and related personnel.
Futu Morning Post | Citigroup strategist talks about the 'Trump winning trade', a good opportunity to profit from the surge in US stocks; AI capital spending continues to expand! Microsoft, Meta both fell after hours.
USA Treasury Department's heavyweight quarterly refinancing announcement: Maintain long-term bond auction scale and guidance unchanged; the U.S. presidential election is undecided, the dollar hedging cost has risen to the highest since 2022; it will impact 3000 dollars next year! Goldman Sachs raises gold price expectations, stating that central bank demand expectations have quadrupled.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On October 30th, 614.14K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.75 Million Open Interest
On October 30th ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 614.14K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 36.59% of
US stock market early trading | Reddit surged 34%, Q3 performance and Q4 guidance both exceeded expectations; super micro computer plummeted nearly 26%, with the auditing firm resigning.
Snap rose by 13%, with third-quarter revenue and user growth exceeding expectations; Donald Trump concept stocks fluctuated during the trading day, with Phunware rising by over 6%, and Trump Media & Technology Group falling by over 11%.
US stocks outlook: The US 'mini non-farm' in October far exceeds expectations, marking the largest increase since July last year; Google rose nearly 7% in pre-market trading, benefiting from cloud business growth and exceeding expectations for Q3 performa
USA's actual GDP for the third quarter grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%, driven by business and household consumer spending; New Bond King: US economic data is being "manipulated," firmly believes interest rates are bottoming out; Eli Lilly and Co. stock fell by 10% pre-market, with third-quarter revenue increasing by 20% year-on-year, falling short of expectations.
New bond king: Expectations for the Federal Reserve have never been so turbulent! usa economic data is being 'manipulated', firmly believing that interest rates are quietly bottoming out.
Gornlak believes that if the USA debt crisis erupts, the government may take extreme measures, leading to drastic fluctuations in the long-term US bond prices. He is concerned that the USA will experience a situation similar to the sharp rise in UK government bond yields three years ago. Gornlak predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once within the remaining time this year, and hold an optimistic attitude towards next year's inflation rate.
Options Daily Tracking | AMD overnight call options money surged 6 times! But pre-market stock price dropped more than 8%; as the election nears! Big players are betting on increased volatility in DJT.
SoFi Technologies fell more than 6% overnight, options volume surged to 1.04 million contracts, more than four times the daily average volume, call proportion remained unchanged from the previous day at 68%.
Economists: The Federal Reserve has not yet tamed inflation.
Economists point out that the Federal Reserve should maintain caution regarding inflation, and Federal policymakers should acknowledge their mistakes, otherwise they may repeat the same mistakes.
Bearish sentiment is strong on US bonds, with the options market already betting on the yield of the 10-year US bonds rising to 4.5%.
As the USA presidential election approaches, market expectations are that regardless of the election results, the USA's budget deficit will remain at a high level. In addition, media analysis suggests that in the short term, US bond auctions will not decrease because it is almost certain that the US government will maintain record-level debt sales in the next three months.
USA Presidential Election Fun Fact: The key state election situation is unusually close, when will the final election results be announced?
Global "onlookers" should prepare themselves in advance, as there is a high probability that the results of the US presidential election on November 5 will not be announced on the election day or the next day, and it may take a few days before the results are revealed.
U.S. bonds heading for the worst monthly performance in over two years: Is Trump becoming the biggest nightmare for the bulls?
①As the US election approaches, US Treasury prices may face their worst monthly performance in over two years; ②As the US presidential election approaches on November 5, Republican presidential candidate Trump seems to have become the biggest 'nightmare' in the minds of US bond bulls.
Futu Morning Post | Global asset frenzy! Nasdaq, gold hit record highs, bitcoin nearing historical highs; Cloud business strong growth! Google up nearly 6% after hours.
Da Ma: US stocks have not fully priced in a Trump victory; The "fear index" VIX has turned net long for the first time since 2018; AMD fell more than 7% after-hours, fourth-quarter revenue outlook fell short of analyst's expectations.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On October 29th, 556.83K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.61 Million Open Interest
On October 29th ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 556.83K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 31.62% of