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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Newsroom
A visual overview of the Trump 2.0 policy timeline! What investment opportunities are worth paying attention to?
Analysis indicates that Trump 2.0's policy may still be within the framework of 1.0, but the pace may accelerate, and domestic and foreign policies may become more assertive. Trump may be more firm in practicing the "America First" principle, implementing tougher immigration and trade policies.
The Federal Reserve's relief plan during the pandemic is now becoming a burden for companies, with a wave of loan defaults beginning to appear.
According to media reports, although most of the total loan amount of $17.5 billion for the 'Ordinary Business Loan Program' has been repaid, as of October 31 of this year, there are still $1.23 billion in interest and principal in default. The government regulatory agency responsible for overseeing the program expects that borrowing enterprises still face two major challenges, including a massive one-time repayment of up to 70% due next year and high interest rates, leading to a significant increase in the default rate.
Beware of the debt storm! The number one financial stability risk in the Federal Reserve survey is now "it"...
The semi-annual financial stability report released by the Federal Reserve on that day showed that concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal debt topped the list in this survey, followed by escalating tensions in the Middle East and policy uncertainty. This survey was conducted by New York Fed staff between the end of August and the end of October, with respondents including professionals from brokerage firms, funds, consulting companies, institutions, and academia.
The core logic behind the rise of the US stock market: the market bets that Trump will not allow the stock market to fall!
The U.S. stock market expects that after Trump takes office, he will introduce a series of bullish policies, including significant reductions in corporate tax rates and relaxing financial regulations, which further strengthens the market influence of the "Trump put options."
The Federal Reserve: The sustainability of usa debt has risen to the number one financial stability risk, inflation threats are declining, on par with the trade war.
According to the Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report, the survey found that more than half of the financial professionals interviewed believe that the sustainability of government debt is a prominent financial stability risk in the next 12 to 18 months, an increase of 14 percentage points compared to the last survey. The percentage of those who believe persistent inflation is a significant risk has halved to 33%. Respondents in this survey also specifically mentioned global trade risks, which did not make it onto the important risk list in the last report. Update.
Welcoming the strongest seasonal increase of the year! Goldman Sachs capital flow experts: I ordered a "S&P 7000 points" hat.
Goldman Sachs expert Rubner stated that in the U.S. election years since 1928, the rebound of the U.S. stock market typically lasts until early January of the following year and then fades before the presidential inauguration day.
The Federal Reserve will start a framework review next year, focusing not on the 2% inflation target; Powell welcomes new perspectives and critical feedback.
The two main focuses of this review are: the "long-term goals and mmf global strategy statement" as well as the policy communication tools, excluding 2% as a long-term inflation target, which may cause dissatisfaction among academia and analysts. Internal discussions among officials will begin at the FOMC meeting in January next year, and a seminar will be held in mid-May inviting external speakers. The 2020 review established a decision to allow inflation to "overshoot" for a period of time.
Official announcement! Trump nominates Besant as the secretary of the treasury in the usa. Learn more about this "Soros disciple".
① After going around in circles, Trump ultimately chose the initially most popular candidate for Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bessen, a former 'Soros disciple' and well-known hedge fund manager. ② So, what specific labels does Bessen carry? What differences are there in policy positions between him and the previous popular candidate for Secretary of the Treasury, Walsh?
Top 20 Transaction Volume | Tesla rose nearly 4%; Chuanzheng is preparing for the Cybertruck's launch in china.
On Friday, the top traded stock in the US was nvidia, which dropped 3.22% with a trade volume of 33.481 billion USD.
US stocks closed | All three major indices rose for the entire week! The Dow Jones hit a new closing high, Tesla rose nearly 4%; cryptos concept stocks all rose, MSTR increased by over 6%.
Funds flowed out of technology stocks and into economically sensitive cyclical stocks. The Nasdaq fluctuated between gains and losses, dragged down by over 3% drop in Nvidia and 1.7% drop in Google Class A. The Dow Jones rose by about 1%, small caps rose by 1.8%, and Chinese concept stocks fell by 1.4%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq accumulated gains of 1.7% for the week, the Dow rose by about 2%, Tesla rose nearly 10% for the week, and Super Micro Computer soared by over 78%, its best week ever. MicroStrategy, known as a 'Bitcoin whale', rebounded by 6% on Friday. Economic weakness pushed the Euro to a two-year low, while the US Dollar rose for the third consecutive week to a two-year high. Offshore Renminbi fell by over 200 points for the week to nearly a four-month low. US oil had its best two-month gain with a 6.5% increase for the week, gold rose by over 1% to surpass $2700, marking its best week in over a year with a 5.7% increase.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On November 22nd, 477.43K Contracts Were Traded, With 6.06 Million Open Interest
On November 22nd ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 477.43K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 33.36% of
US stocks early trading | Some cryptos concept stocks rose, CleanSpark surged over 5%, MSTR rebounded nearly 4%; super micro computer rose over 12% again, accumulating over 80% in the past six trading days.
On the evening of the 22nd in peking time, all three major stock indexes are likely to record gains this week. The market continues to focus on signs of sector rotation from technology stocks to cyclical stocks.
US stock preview | Outstanding stocks collectively celebrate! AI search company Elastic soared 26% pre-market, Gap rose over 15%; Reddit fell nearly 7% pre-market, Tencent shareholding reduction.
Musk: The Optimus siasun robot&automation can be priced at $0.02-0.03 million, but annual production needs to exceed 1 million; Reddit fell nearly 7% in pre-market trading, impacted by Tencent's shareholding.
Breaking news! Is the "shadow chairman of the Federal Reserve" coming soon?
USA Treasury Secretary nominee Yellen is expected to be nominated as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Analysis suggests that the 'shadow chairman' may intervene in the direction of monetary policy ahead of the official assumption of office in 2026, conveying Trump's 'low interest rate' inclination, exacerbating the risk of soaring inflation. At the same time, the Federal Reserve Chairman does not have complete decision-making authority over policy rates, which may also make the monetary policy outlook more uncertain.
Daily options tracker | Attacked by short sellers! MSTR's implied volatility soared to 211%, reaching a new high for the year; Nvidia options trading volume nearly doubled, with the call/put ratio rising to 66.2%.
Performance exceeded expectations! Snowflake rose by over 30%, with the call ratio soaring to 69%. The volume of options increased by 2.36 times month-on-month to 0.677 million contracts; on the options chain, the highest volume of call options at a strike price of $175 reached 0.028 million contracts, followed by the call option with a strike price of $180 expiring next Friday, with a volume of 0.023 million contracts.
Trump is considering letting Walsh serve as Treasury Secretary first, and then as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Some informed sources indicate that Trump is considering appointing Bessent to lead the White House Economic Council. If Powell becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Trump will nominate Bessent to be the Secretary of the Treasury later in his term.
Become the Treasury Secretary first for a year before assuming the position of Chairman of the Federal Reserve? It is rumored that Trump has set his sights on Kevin Warsh.
According to informed sources, the newly elected president Trump has proposed to choose financier Kevin Warsh as the Secretary of the Treasury; and when the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell ends in 2026, Warsh may also be nominated as the Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Continue to play music and dance! Moody's is firmly calling for a bullish outlook on US stocks next year, with winning stocks not limited to large technology companies.
jpmorgan expects that the usa stock market will continue to rise next year due to strong corporate earnings and economic performance.
Goldman Sachs, the "bull market leader", outlook for 2025: Next year, the USA will be a year of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds.
Goldman Sachs is bullish on the USA stock market and bonds market in 2025.
Wall Street investment banks are concerned that interest rates cannot be lowered next year, but the Federal Reserve seems to think otherwise.
① Although the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to attract safe-haven bids for US bonds, the overall US bond market has still not been able to reverse the recent weak trend, largely due to the market's lack of confidence in the Fed's upcoming rate cut process; ② However, compared to the highly pessimistic outlook of market participants on rate cuts at the moment, recent statements from Fed officials seem not as hawkish.