The Fed's expected rate cut next year has drastically shrunk, and Powell may temporarily choose to "settle things peacefully"!
The market has spent two months reducing bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts next year, and the short-term adjustment may have been completed. Powell's dovish remarks could boost bonds and weigh down the dollar.
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Expected to Steepen -- Market Talk
Understand it in one picture! When to focus on US stocks, when to layout global: all depends on "it"
For Wall Street traders, when should they concentrate their efforts on positioning in the US stock market? When should they diversify their funds and invest in overseas markets? The answer may lie on a very familiar chart: the 10-year US Treasury yield.
Trump has finally compromised! The transition team has signed the official background check agreement with the Department of Justice in the USA.
① The team of USA's incoming president Trump has reached an agreement with the Department of Justice, allowing the FBI to conduct background checks on the nominee and members of the transition team, to support the government transition; ② This agreement was originally planned to be signed on October 1, but the Trump team was reluctant to sign it, slowing down the entire process; ③ Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, may become the focus of the background check as he has been accused of sexual assault and alcohol abuse.
Federal Reserve officials are taking turns "playing Tai Chi," is a rate cut in December in doubt?
More data is needed.
The usa Treasury market is poised for action, with traders betting that yields will continue to decline.
Bond traders are actively preparing for the new round of rise in the US Treasury market, expecting the yield to continue to fall from the peak after Donald Trump's election victory.
Futu Morning Post | South Korea's president announced 'emergency martial law' late at night, stirring up the market; high-performance stocks collectively celebrate after hours! Marvell Technology, salesforce surged more than 10%.
Will the interest rate be cut in December? The Fed's voting members this year are "doing Tai Chi": regardless of cutting or not, interest rates should continue to decline; Nasdaq and S&P hit new highs again! Apple has risen for seven consecutive days to create a new historical high; Palantir rose nearly 7% to create a new historical high again, with the company's cloud computing service receiving a "highly authorized" certification.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On December 3rd, 384.68K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.78 Million Open Interest
On December 3rd ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 384.68K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 41.46% of
U.S. stocks in the early market | The three major indexes showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising slightly, most AI concept stocks increasing, palantir up over 5%, and super micro computer up over 8%.
peking time on the evening of the 3rd, the US stock market opened with mixed gains and losses on Tuesday. US stock trade enters the end of the year, with both the s&p 500 index and the Nasdaq hitting record highs yesterday. This week, the market is focusing on the US November non-farm employment data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path issue.
Buoyed by Trump's election victory, optimism among the usa business community has reached a multi-year high.
Since Trump won the usa presidential election, multiple surveys have shown that American businesses are becoming more optimistic about their prospects. They expect the Trump administration to implement more pro-business policies and reduce regulatory burdens.
US stock market outlook | Can it rise 4% more this year? JPMorgan expects the S&P index to reach a maximum of 6,300 points by the end of the year; the donald trump concept is back again! PSQ Holdings surged by 130% in pre-market trading.
Tesla's year-end target is approaching, with a further decline in deliveries in China; Has the US stock market rally peaked? The 'fear indicator' suggests there is still room for growth; Renowned valuation experts recommend buying the 'magnificent 7' technology giants during market adjustments.
10-year Treasury Yield Edges Higher as Investors Await Economic Data, Fed Speeches
US Stock Gold Mining | Black Friday trade continues to explode! Demand for upgrades stimulates apple to regain the global market cap top spot; retail stocks walmart and costco reach new highs collectively.
The 'audit scandal' ends? Super Micro Computer soared nearly 29% overnight! After external review found no improper behavior, the company replaced its CFO; Advertising agencies The Trade Desk may merge with streaming platform Roku, with the former's stock price reaching a new high, while the latter surged 11% in one day.
Daily options tracking | china asset etf call options are being heavily bought; super micro computer stock price skyrocketed, with call orders making a profit of 4 times.
Apple rose nearly 1% yesterday, with its stock price surpassing its historical high, reclaiming the top position in global market cap, as a major investor bought 4,000 call options expiring on September 19, 2025, involving an investment of 4.38 million dollars.
Will the Federal Reserve lower rates in December? This week's non-farm data is crucial.
Citi stated that Friday's non-farm payroll report will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's recent policies and future direction. If employment data is strong and inflation strengthens in November, the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate hikes at the December FOMC meeting; conversely, there is a possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut. Citi analyst Andrew Hollenhorst mentioned in a report on December 2 that, according to Powell's latest views, the usa labor market has not stabilized and is still softening. This indicates that the current policy rate is restrictive and the labor market will not be a source of inflationary pressure. This is in contrast to the current market sentiment.
Is the usa experiencing a "CEO layoff trend"? The number of CEOs leaving this year has reached a record high.
①Last Sunday and Monday Eastern Time, both intel and Stellantis' CEOs announced their resignations, highlighting a wide trend in the entire business sector in the usa - the "layoff tide" of CEOs.②The number of CEO resignations in the usa has reached a record high this year, with more than 1800 CEOs announcing their resignations as of October, indicating an increased risk appetite and a desire for leaders to address the complex business environment and turn the company's situation around.
Federal Reserve officials are dovish, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve briefly inverted, reigniting hopes for a rate cut in December.
USA Treasury bonds regained lost ground in early trading on Monday, and market sentiment was further boosted towards the end of the day in New York, as a key official from the Federal Reserve opened the door to further easing monetary policy later this month.
Federal Reserve officials take a dovish stance, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve briefly inverts, rekindling hopes for a rate cut in December.
USA Treasury bonds regained lost ground in early trading on Monday, and market sentiment was further boosted towards the end of the day in New York, as a key official from the Federal Reserve opened the door to further easing monetary policy later this month.
Technology remains the preferred sector! Ubs group outlook on US stocks in 2025: these four sectors are most likely to rise
① Analysts at ubs group suggest that investors allocate to technology, finance, industry, and utility stocks; ② Analysts indicate that technology remains the preferred sector, with expected gains next year likely to exceed large cap.
Futu Express | Three senior officials from the Federal Reserve speak intensively! They maintain an open attitude towards the interest rate decision in December; the Nasdaq and S&P hit new highs together, with Morgan Stanley predicting the S&P will reach 6
Central bank: Starting from the statistics of January 2025, the newly revised narrow mmf (M1) statistical caliber will be applied; the USA ISM manufacturing data is better than expected, with weak demand but signs of easing; the increasing burden of USA debt raises concerns about fiscal sustainability.