What would happen if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates this year.
Investors are weighing an important question: Is the barrier to raising interest rates greater than that of lowering them?
Has 5% reached its limit? The world's largest bond fund leads the way, and Wall Street is showing bullish sentiments towards U.S. Treasuries...
At the beginning of 2025, one of the biggest uncertainties in the Global market is undoubtedly when the selling wave of U.S. Treasuries, with yields racing towards 5%, will stop; Moreover, this Tuesday, Wall Street finally seemed to show a long-awaited bullish sentiment in the bond market...
Have U.S. Treasury yields peaked? Some on Wall Street have started to bet.
Media analysis points out that the uncertainty of Trump's policies is one of the important reasons leading some traders to Put the yields of U.S. bonds. Reports suggest that the Trump administration may gradually implement tariffs. One large trade cost over 40 million dollars in premiums, betting that the 10-year yield will drop from the current level of about 4.8% to 4.6% before February 21.
IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Options Spot-On: On January 14th, 684.88K Contracts Were Traded, With 6.18 Million Open Interest
On January 14th ET, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 684.88K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 36.21% of
Why Is the Bond Market Ignoring the Soft PPI Numbers?
US stock early market | USA PPI data is below expectations! Market sentiment has improved, stocks related to Chinese concepts, quantum computing, Drones, and Robot Concept all surged, with Richtech Robotics soaring nearly 50%.
On the evening of the 14th Beijing time, the US stock market opened higher on Tuesday. The PPI in the USA for December rose less than expected, indicating a reduction in inflationary pressure. It is reported that the Trump team is considering gradually increasing import taxes to prevent a sudden spike in inflation.
US Stock Outlook | The three major index futures have surged in the short term! The USA PPI data was lower than expected; China Concept Stocks are rising in pre-market trading, with XPeng Autos up over 9%.
Tesla's pre-market shares continued to rise over 1%, with Morgan Stanley raising the Target Price to $430 and reiterating it as a top pick; Applied Digital soared over 20% in pre-market trading, with Macquarie investing up to $5 billion to build an AI Datacenter.
Tesla is experiencing high-level fluctuations! The debate between bulls and bears on Wall Street is intensifying. Can the 'autonomous driving and Siasun Robot&Automation story' stimulate a surge in stock prices?
Recently, two events have sparked differing views among major investment banks regarding Tesla, and Wall Street's major investment banks have been in a heated debate over the future direction of Tesla's stock price.
The CPI "appetizer" has arrived! The leading indicator PPI will be announced tonight at 21:30.
The market focus has shifted to inflation data, but strong non-farm payrolls may strengthen the market's ability to withstand high inflation. How will Gold respond?
Is a strong economy becoming a "stumbling block" for the U.S. stock market? The shadow of inflation is looming over Wall Street.
This week's data is likely to intensify Wall Street's concerns...
U.S. stock market opportunities | News of huge mergers brings Bullish sentiment! ITCI soared 34% overnight, and several Medical stocks surged on the news; Oil & Gas prices rose together! The Oil & Gas Sector collectively went up.
A multi-million dollar deal has been signed! The Israeli Ministry of Defense and the defense company Elbit Systems have had a strong start to the year, with overnight stock prices rising nearly 3%, setting new records.
U.S. Bond Yields Slip From Highest in More Than a Year With Inflation Data Ahead
Daily Options Tracking | Is the "Trump Trade" making a comeback? DJT made a 24-fold profit on a call option; NVIDIA Options trading is experiencing a tug-of-war, with a large investor purchasing nearly 20 million dollars in long-term call options.
Quantum computing stock RGTI dropped over 32% in the previous trading day, with Options Chain Volume slightly rising to 0.37 million contracts, implied volatility soaring to 211%, and the Put ratio at 52.8%. On the Options Chain, the bearish position is the market Block Orders, with the highest volume for the put option set to expire this Friday at a strike price of $6, totaling 0.014 million contracts, and an open interest of 3,700 contracts.
What is the impact of Trump's "gradual" tariff plan on inflation? UBS Group: The Federal Reserve will be in a tricky situation.
Dr. Arend Kapteyn, an executive at UBS Group, stated that Trump's gradual tariff plan will pose challenges for the Federal Reserve as it struggles against inflation; He pointed out that rolling tariffs could lead to a significant rise in peak inflation, making it more difficult for the central bank to respond; Currently, investors are eagerly awaiting the USA's inflation data, which will indicate whether the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of interest rate cuts this year.
The bear market for U.S. bonds has entered its sixth year!
The U.S. Bonds are about to enter the sixth year of the third major bear market of the past 240 years, with the previous two bear markets lasting 21 years and 35 years respectively, and this bear market market cycle may be shorter.
Higher-Than-Expected U.S. CPI Could Add Next Leg to Bond-Market Selloff -- Market Talk
Optimism Out of the Window?
What is the likelihood of the USA declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs?
CITIC SEC believes that Trump may threaten other countries by declaring a national emergency to push the USA towards achieving its political goals, but the probability of this initiative being implemented is relatively low.
The Global bond sell-off has spread to Japan, with the 40-year bond yield rising to its highest level since 2007.
On Tuesday, the 20-year bond yield in Japan reached its highest level since 2011; inflation and fiscal concerns led to a significant rise in global bond yields.
It is 2025, and this is the Federal Reserve's latest "hawk-dove distribution", showing significant internal divergence.
According to the updated "dove-hawk distribution" chart, the policy inclination of the voting committee in 2025 is similar to that in 2024, with an average score close to neutral policy. However, in 2025, the score differences among committee members are greater than last year. Analysis suggests that this significant divergence in policy inclination may lead to more disagreements within the 2025 committee, especially in light of the changes in trade and immigration policies following Trump's administration, which could have a major impact on the USA supply chain.