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Next Sunday, the central bank will announce its decision. According to HSBC, strong wage growth and economic recovery make interest rate hikes a certainty!
HSBC expects that the Bank of Japan will raise the policy interest rate to 0.5% at the meeting on January 24, with key factors for this decision being the continued improvement in economic activity and price performance in Japan. Companies are increasingly optimistic about wage growth, and more companies have explicitly proposed future salary increase plans.
The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates next week has greatly increased! "Trump" has become the only variable.
According to sources, officials at the Bank of Japan generally believe that the likelihood of an interest rate hike next week has significantly increased, provided that Donald Trump taking office in the White House does not trigger too many negative surprises.
[Japanese Stock Market Review] Rising interest rate rumors again! The Nikkei 225 has fallen for 5 consecutive days, and the market is waiting for USA CPI.
On Wednesday (January 15), Japan's stock market fell slightly as chip-related stocks came under pressure, and the uncertainty regarding the Bank of Japan's policy outlook affected market sentiment. The Nikkei/Yen index failed to maintain its early gains and ultimately closed lower. Investors remained cautious while waiting for the USA's inflation data to be released later that day.
The Bank of Japan governor stated that a decision on whether to raise interest rates will be made next week, causing a short-term appreciation of the yen, and the two-year Japanese government bond yield rose to its highest level in 17 years.
Overnight Index swaps indicate that the market bets on a 73% probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates this month, and an 86% probability of a rate hike by the end of March. Analysts believe that compared to earlier views this month, the governor today provided clearer guidance on what might be discussed at the meeting.
Japanese Yen Rises After BOJ's Ueda Says Rate Hike Possible With Economic Progress
[Nikkei Stock Review] At one point, it plunged nearly 900 points! The USA has taken action against China and Russia again, and the Nikkei 225 has fallen for four consecutive days.
On Tuesday (January 14), the Tokyo stock market fell for the fourth consecutive day, with the Nikkei/Yen index dropping by more than 2% at one point, due to concerns over the potential impact of further restrictions by the USA on semiconductor exports, triggering a sell-off in technology stocks.