The worst case scenario of the US debt crisis: if Trump orders a default on debt payments!

Nomura and other analysts pointed out that if the United States chooses to default, the credibility of the US dollar will be damaged, which may lead investors to demand higher risk premiums for US bonds, resulting in a sharp increase in government interest payments. Without a large-scale fiscal overhaul, the Federal Reserve loses its monetary policy independence, and the government implements strict financial regulation to try to push real US bond yields into deep negative values to settle federal debt.

wallstreetcnJul 4 22:37

Will a big mystery of the US economy be revealed soon? The answer may lie in the non-farm payroll data!

Economists debate: Is the US labor market normalizing, or is it an indication that the economy is about to slow down?

Golden10 DataJul 4 22:20

In the next three weeks, the "Trump trade" will be crucial.

JPMorgan stated that if Biden's support rate in swing states falls significantly in the next three weeks, he will face huge pressure to withdraw. If Biden is forced to step down, the preferred replacement is Vice President Kamala Harris.

wallstreetcnJul 4 21:47

How does Wall Street predict the strongest global theme for the second half of the year, with expectations of a rate cut, election suspense, and the trend of US stocks?

As the global central bank interest rate cuts arrive, major events such as inflation rebound, the U.S. presidential election, and earnings season tests may all intensify volatility risks, but they also bring many opportunities for positioning.

Futu NewsJul 4 21:05

The US Federal Reserve has been slow to cut interest rates, and the size of the US money market has surpassed 6.15 trillion US dollars, reaching a new high.

In the week ending on the 2nd, there was a inflow of approximately $51.2 billion into the US fund market, the largest inflow in three months. Some analysts pointed out that as long as the Federal Reserve continues to hold steady, funds will continue to flow into currency funds.

wallstreetcnJul 4 20:23

The minutes of the June meeting mentioned three times that the Fed really lacks confidence in rate cuts.

Some FOMC members pointed out that if the job vacancy rate drops to 4.5%, it may have already approached or exceeded certain thresholds, meaning that the future unemployment rate will rise more sharply. Most members believe that as the economy gradually cools down, the huge economic pressures faced by low-income households are a major concern for the Fed.

wallstreetcnJul 4 18:58