Direct hit on the USA election: When is the earliest possible outcome of this election?
The earliest time the results of this year's usa election will be announced. Market volatility is likely to soar, traders need to do risk management.
Did the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November to stabilize? Major banks collectively warned: the subsequent easing path may be less than expected!
Last week, a series of economic data in the usa indicated that inflation continued to slow, signs of cooling in the labor market, while consumer spending remained robust. However, the core issue currently facing the policymakers at the Federal Reserve is: how long will these trends continue, and at what level should interest rates remain stable?
"Bond Guardian" returns! Regardless of who wins, will US bond yields still hit 5%?
Bond investors are "voting with their feet," betting that the continued interest rate cuts by the Fed and the expansionary fiscal policy of the next government will push up long-term inflation. Once the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is pushed up to 5%, it will impact the Fed's subsequent rate-cutting actions.
US stock market early trading | Three major indices rise together, 'Trump trade' heating up across the board! DJT up nearly 13%, cryptos concept stocks on the rise; growth tech stocks generally up, palantir soars over 20% after earnings.
As of the press time, the three major US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow up 0.44%, the Nasdaq up 1%, and the s&p 500 index up 0.72%.
Before the USA election, the top five busiest trades.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded by about 70 basis points from the recent low, while the U.S. dollar has also rebounded by 3.3% from its low point. Bitcoin fell after hitting a historical high last week, with bank stocks and clean energy stocks rising and falling by about 5% respectively in the past month, but both reversed course on Monday. DJT has risen over 180% since its low point.
The most likely two scenarios for the USA presidential election, how to trade? This is the answer from Goldman Sachs.
Daiwa stated that the market is still inclined towards Trump winning and the Republicans sweeping Congress. In this scenario, if the volatility of US bond yields remains limited, cyclical stocks will perform well. At the same time, the possibility of Harris winning and Congress being divided is also increasing, in which case consumer stocks affected by tariffs and wind power stocks will perform well.