Soft landing or hard landing? Bank of America's financial report suggests: no landing!
Consumer spending remains robust, moderate crediting conditions eased, coupled with anticipated inflation relief and declining interest rates, all provide support for the usa economy to avoid a hard landing.
Institutions: It is still highly probable that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in November.
The US economic and CPI data for August and September have debunked the previous recession trade and excessive rate cut trades. Will there be any changes in the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the future? We believe that two 25 basis point cuts within the year are still the baseline assumption, but we need to pay attention to the possibility that rate cuts next year may not meet expectations.
USA inflation data disrupts market expectations? Federal Reserve officials reiterate: support 'gradual' rate cuts.
On Friday Eastern Time, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated her view that interest rates should slowly move to a more normal level, using a "gradual" rate cut. According to cme Fed watch tool, as of the time of publication, the market expects a 10.5% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in November, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 89.5%.
The 'miracle' of the US stock market hitting new highs continuously: Wall Street is in a panic but keeps buying non-stop.
①If people take a simple glance at the current market in the USA, what undoubtedly comes into view is a healthy picture; ②The s&p 500 index has just set the 45th new high of the year, csi enterprise bond index still shows no worrisome signs, csi commodity equity index continues to rise under the optimism of the global economy; ③However, upon closer inspection, the outlook will quickly appear slightly dimmer.
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