The Federal Reserve's first rate cut in four years, with Bank of America predicting a further 75 basis point cut before the end of the year.
Bank of America Global Research Company said on Wednesday (September 18th) that it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points for the remaining time this year, which is higher than previously estimated. Bank of America also pointed out that the Federal Reserve may further reduce interest rates by 125 basis points by 2025. On the same day, Goldman Sachs predicted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points multiple times until mid-2025.
Is the Federal Reserve starting an interest rate cut cycle on the cusp of a wave, possibly revealing the outcome of the election in advance?
Taking history as a lesson, in an election year with declining interest rates, the probability of the incumbent president or challenger winning is greater.
5.1 trillion US dollars of options will expire! The "Triple Witching Hour" of US stocks will hit tomorrow night, what impact will it have on the market?
According to derivative analysis company Asym 500 estimates, approximately $5.1 trillion of index, stocks, and ETF options will expire on Friday.
The smaller the plate, the more fierce the rise? Rate cuts plus a soft landing, the Russell 2000 has risen for six consecutive days and may become the 'big winner'!
After the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut, the three major US stock indexes all straight up but ended with losses; the small cap representative e-mini Russell 2000 index also straight up, with greater elasticity, and ultimately closed flat; 'aggressive rate cuts' meets 'strong economy/soft landing', small caps are considered to benefit more from loose mmf policies.
US stock market preview | All three major futures indexes rose, Nasdaq futures rose more than 2%; technology stocks and Chinese concept stocks rose collectively before the market, Alibaba rose more than 4%, Nvidia and Tesla rose more than 3%
Bitcoin surpassed $63,000 today, with pre-market gains in crypto-related stocks. MSTR and MARA rose over 5%; Tesla rose nearly 3% pre-market, with Robotaxi set to debut soon, and bullish views from Wall Street institutions.
The next question is, where is the endpoint of the interest rate cut and how fast will it be?
According to Powell's speech, the neutral interest rate may be raised and will not continue to cut interest rates at a rate of 50 basis points in the future, and economic data is still the main basis. Nick Timiraos said that cutting interest rates too quickly could delay the achievement of the 2% inflation target, while cutting interest rates too slowly could cause the unemployment rate to rise again. It is expected that the next meeting will continue to face similar uncertainty as this one.