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Don't just focus on the polls! The trend of the US stock market is the compass for the US presidential election. Here is an investment guide for you to check out.
Analysts have found that since 1984, as long as the S&P 500 index rises accumulatively between August and October, the ruling party will win the election; on the contrary, if the S&P 500 index drops during this period, the challenger will win.
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After "getting the US bond right", BofA's Hartnett: gold hedge against "secondary inflation", the best "contrary trade" is oil and metals.
Hartnett believes that whether it is Harris or Trump who finally becomes the President of the United States, it will not change the trajectory of the expanding government debt and ballooning deficit in the United States. Therefore, the market will turn to gold in a flight-to-safety sentiment, and it is expected that the price of gold will rise to $3,000 per ounce.
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Gold has surged during the past four terms of the US presidency, Citigroup: Aiming for $3,000 this year!
The price of gold rose by over 50% during President Trump's term, and then rose by 37% during President Biden's term. However, compared to President Bush's term, it can only be considered a "small fry". During his term, gold saw its largest increase since 1989, reaching as high as 215%.
On the eve of the September interest rate meeting, a report ignited expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut, causing stocks, gold, and bitcoin to all rise.
"New Federal Reserve Communications Agency" article stated that Federal Reserve officials are considering whether to cut 25 or 50 basis points. Futures linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate indicate that traders on Friday expect the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve to rise to 47%, with a close to 50/50 chance, while the probability estimated on Thursday was only 28%.
U.S. stocks closed | S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose for the fifth consecutive week, with nvidia up nearly 16% for the week and broadcom up 22% for the week.
The rebound in US consumer confidence, the near four-year low in one-year inflation expectations, the support of the former "Fed's three hands" for a 50 basis point rate cut, and the significant increase in betting on substantial rate cuts by the "Fed's communication agency" and others, have returned to the "fifty-fifty" level. Small cap stocks rose by more than 2% on Friday, chip index rose by 10% over the week, NVIDIA rose by nearly 16% over the week, and Broadcom rose by 22% over the week. The two-year US Treasury yield returned to a two-year low, the yen rose above 141, the highest in nearly nine months, offshore renminbi rose above 7.10 yuan, and bitcoin rose to $0.06 million. Oil prices stopped the multi-week decline, and gold rose by over 3% for the best month in a month.
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