No chance for a 50 basis point cut, uncertain about a 25 basis point cut? The Fed may pause rate cuts after the non-farm payroll data.
The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut in September was criticized as "unnecessary" and "wrong", and the monetary easing actions in 2024 may have already ended.
Futu Morning Post | Hang Seng Index's annual increase shines globally! Chinese stocks and funds are soaring overseas; Goldman Sachs cheers 'overweight' Chinese stock market! Can rise another 15%-18%.
Wall Street analysts are calling out: buying China is the most important market call right now, the csi 300 index could hit 6000 points within a year! Chen Maobo: Hong Kong's market cap has risen to 39.4 trillion Hong Kong dollars, expecting many companies to expedite their listing process in Hong Kong; With the "star effect" from Wall Street, the "China Dragon" etf is about to directly confront the seven giants of the US stock market.
Looking ahead to next week | The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on October 8th, and A-shares will open on Tuesday; The Fed meeting minutes will be accompanied by heavyweight US CPI data.
Federal Reserve officials take turns appearing; Tesla will officially release Robotaxi, AMD will host 'Advancing AI 2024'; Q3 earnings season is coming! JPMorgan and others are the first to announce performance; Due to the Double Ninth Festival, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on Friday, and southbound and northbound trades will be closed.
Will the "ignored" usa inflation be the black swan of the fourth quarter?
The Middle East conflict may lead to a surge in oil prices, as well as the wage growth in non-farm data, all indicating that the usa's "inflation is not dead".
U.S. stock market morning session | September non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, with the three major indices opening higher before falling back slightly; most technology stocks rose, with AMD, tesla, and amazon up more than 2%.
As of press time, the Dow rose by 0.63%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.03%, and the s&p 500 index rose by 0.68%.
Express News | Traders wiped out the bet on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.
Nearly doubled compared to expectations! September non-farm payrolls 'exceeded expectations', is the Fed slowing down rate cuts a 'foregone conclusion'?
Powell "saves" face, and traders are now lowering their expectations for the Fed's future interest rate cuts at the next four meetings to less than 100 basis points.
Express News | After the non-farm payroll report, traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in the next four meetings are less than 100 basis points.
US stock market outlook: US September non-farm data higher than expected! Three major futures indicators surge in a straight line; will Chinese concept stocks continue to climb? Morgan Stanley: If short positions cover, it will push up the upward trend.
Bank of America: China stock fund saw the second highest inflow scale in history in the past week; European Central Bank Governing Council: inflation is under control, concerns arise as labor market cools down; spirit airlines plunged 33% before the market, the company is discussing potential bankruptcy application terms.
Express News | US Sep. Non-Farm Payrolls +254000 Vs +140000 Forecast, Prior +159000; US Sep. Unemployment Rate 4.1% Vs 4.2% Forecast, Prior 4.2%
The market and the Federal Reserve's game is gradually heating up! Will tonight's non-farm payrolls determine the extent of the interest rate cut?
The analyst pointed out that Powell hinted at a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December, but if the employment data is weak, a significant rate cut plan may be put back on the agenda.
Is the market dovishness too loud? Non-farm will be a key element of the expected adjustment!
The market is more dovish than the Federal Reserve, and ultimately both sides will have to adjust their expectations. Tonight's non-farm payrolls report is a key data point.
The major strike at the ports in the USA has finally come to an end! Democrats can finally breathe a sigh of relief during this critical election period.
①On Thursday (October 3rd) local time, dock workers in the usa announced the end of a three-day strike; ②The temporary agreement reached by both labor and management includes a 62% salary increase for workers over the next six years; ③The end of the strike has eased the public's panic and also eliminated a potential political issue for Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign.
US Stocks Gold Rush | Silicon Valley giants speak up again for AI power usage! Nuclear power stocks VST, CEG both hit record highs; Middle East tensions ignite fuel prices, valero energy, marathon petroleum surge over 5% overnight.
In terms of leading giants hitting new highs in the US stock market, Meta rose 1.74% to the top of the rankings, exxon mobil rose 0.87%, and Fidelity Financial Services rose 0.5%.
After England and Japan took turns releasing pigeons, the situation in the Middle East became unstable. On the eve of non-farm payrolls, the US dollar has risen for four consecutive sessions!
Forex broker XTB's research director Kathleen Brooks said, "The strong risk of the September non-farm payroll report could lead to greater than usual fluctuations in the US stock market and the US dollar, with increased safe-haven sentiment and the US non-farm payroll report, it is a combination that can easily cause market turbulence."
See you tonight! The most heavyweight global macroeconomic data of the week is about to be released......
If we were to discuss the most important overseas macroeconomic data this week, then perhaps the US non-farm payroll data for September, which will be released tonight at 20:30 peking time, would be the top choice. The non-farm data is likely to be the last 'normal' employment report for the foreseeable future. How will this key employment indicator, which is expected to determine the pace of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, perform?
Futu Morning Post | Fund managers are entering the Chinese stock market at a record speed! The 'China Dragon' ETF lands in the US stock market; foreign capital accelerates its positions! Morgan Stanley increases its shareholding in BYD and other companies
The size of the USA money market fund has reached a record $6.46 trillion; Biden's vague stance has sparked an energy storm, causing international oil prices to soar by over 5%; just after raising funds, OpenAI secured a $4 billion credit line, with liquid assets exceeding over $10 billion.
U.S. stock market morning session | Nasdaq, S&P turned from decline to rise intraday; semiconductor sector strong increase, nvidia, AMD rose nearly 4%
As of the press time, the Dow Jones fell by 0.24%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.20%, and the s&p 500 rose by 0.02%.
Express News | USA's September ISM non-manufacturing PMI was 54.9, higher than market expectations.
USA's initial jobless claims rose slightly last week, showing continued resilience in the job market.
In the usa, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week ending September 28 was 0.225 million, a slight increase of 6000 people from the previous week, lower than the expected 0.221 million, and lower than the previous value of 0.218 million.