If consumer confidence in the USA is insufficient, an economic recession may be foreseeable.

According to data released by the Conference Board on the 25th, the USA's Consumer Confidence Index for March is at 92.9, a decline for the fourth consecutive month, significantly lower than the expected 94 and the revised previous value of 100.1, reaching the lowest level since early 2021. The expectations index for the next six months has sharply dropped to 65.2, the lowest in the last twelve years, well below the critical threshold of 80. Consumer confidence is declining at the fastest rate in three years, reaching the lowest level since January 2021. The report from the University of Michigan on Friday is likely to continue this trend.

FX678 Finance17:55

Federal Reserve board member: The risk of inflation rising still exists, supporting the decision to maintain interest rates unchanged for a period of time.

① Fed Governor Kugler indicated that the USA inflation expectation Indicators have risen, supporting the decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate; ② Prices of some Commodities have shown signs of re-accelerating in the past few months; ③ While closely monitoring the upcoming data and the cumulative effects of new policies, maintaining the current interest rates for a period of time can help respond to new developments.

cls.cnMar 25 22:27

Decision analysis: Trump opens a new front in trade! The market anxiously waits for April 2, while the dollar fluctuates.

On Wednesday (March 26), Asian stock markets rose following Wall Street, while the dollar showed volatility as the market awaits President Donald Trump's clarification of his trade policy ahead of the implementation of a new round of tariffs next week.

FX16817:10

Opposing Powell's "transitory inflation theory"? Fed officials: If market inflation expectations also rise, it will be a "major warning signal."

The long-term inflation expectations of American households have risen to the highest level since 1993. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee pointed out that the USA's "Gold Road" has come to an end, entering a period of "dust and haze." The tariff policy promoted by Trump has introduced new variables, and in the face of uncertainty, the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut may take longer than expected.

wallstreetcn14:56

The economic growth in the USA is slowing down, but there are no obvious signs of a recession approaching.

In the past month, the USA economy has undergone a narrative shift. After two years of exceeding expectations, it now appears that the growth of the USA economy will be slower than many on Wall Street had predicted at the beginning of 2025. However, even though the economy is cooling, it is not collapsing. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the most recent press conference on March 19, "Economic growth may appear to be slowing, consumer spending has slowed, but the pace remains steady." Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.7% in its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Powell subsequently discussed the economy.

FX678 Finance14:44

Countdown to interest rate cuts has begun? Senior officials of the Federal Reserve release key signals, but warn that the "economic fog" has not cleared.

Austan Goolsbee, the President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, recently revealed a significant prediction to the Financial Times of the United Kingdom: interest rates will be "significantly lowered" in the next 12-18 months. This statement from the 2024 FOMC voter injects strong optimism into the market's long-awaited interest rate cut cycle, but the accompanying warning of "uncertainty" serves as a cold shower, revealing the heavy fog on the road to monetary policy transition. 1. Policy Roadmap: The time window for interest rate cuts has been outlined. Goolsbee clearly provided a framework for the expectation of rate cuts in 12-18 months for the first time, in line with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the interest rates in the Range of 4.25%-4.50% in March.

FX678 Finance14:24