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Is the Federal Reserve turning hawkish? Morgan Stanley: I have seen this episode!
Morgan Stanley stated that the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts depend on the implementation progress of the restrictive policies of the new Trump administration. However, the impact of these policies on economic activity may also be delayed. Therefore, while the Federal Reserve is currently hawkish, it may turn dovish later.
Oil prices have dropped by 2.5%! With the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations conflicting with demand, what will the future trend be?
This week, the international crude oil market closed stable, with Brent crude oil Futures rising by 0.08% to $72.94 per barrel, while WTI Crude Oil Futures increased by 0.12% to $69.46 per barrel. For the week, the two major Indicators of crude oil Futures cumulatively dropped by about 2.5%. The market is weighing the expectations of interest rate cuts in the USA and the demand outlook, while the dollar's pullback has provided some support for the crude oil market. The cooling of inflation in the USA has led to a softening of the dollar, which theoretically is Bullish for crude oil prices. However, the hawkish signals released by the Federal Reserve after the year-end meeting have weakened market expectations for significant rate cuts in 2025. Although the dollar has retreated from two-year highs,
Dominant market "narrative": Powell VS Trump.
After the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, the U.S. stock market nearly erased all the gains since Election Day, reflecting a divergence in market narratives: last month's surging "Trump narrative" has cooled down, while the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" stance has shifted market focus back to inflation factors.
The Federal Reserve's "third-in-command": It is expected that interest rates will continue to be cut in the future, and the impact of Trump's policies has begun to be considered.
①Williams stated that he expects the Federal Reserve to implement more interest rate cuts, but the decision on rate cuts will depend on subsequent data, as monetary policy still suppresses economic growth momentum; ②Williams acknowledged that the impact of Trump's policy agenda has begun to influence his economic outlook.
The "farce" of the USA government shutdown crisis is over! The Senate has passed a stopgap spending bill.
The bill ensures that the USA federal government continues to receive operational funding, extending the funding period from this Friday night to mid-March next year.
Express News | The U.S. Senate voted to pass an emergency funding bill to prevent a government "shutdown", which will provide operating funds for the USA government until next March.