Is the market 'selling the first interest rate cut'? Bank of America: Bullish on defensive stocks, gold, and bonds in the second half of the year.
Hartnett believes that the probability of a "hard landing" in the United States is generally underestimated, even if the Federal Reserve only lowers interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time, it will still significantly lower interest rates. He believes that the most advantageous course of action now is to "sell the first interest rate cut" and wait for a better opportunity to enter the market for risk assets.
Week Ahead | Heavy blow of US CPI data; First face-to-face confrontation between Trump and Harris, Apple and Huawei conferences on the same day.
The Federal Reserve enters a 'quiet period', while the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. The US stock earnings season is coming to an end, with performance from companies such as Oracle and Gamestop worth paying attention to.
The suspense of the Fed's interest rate cut in September may have to wait until the last moment to be revealed! The U.S. stock market wants to see a 25 basis point cut.
The latest employment data did not resolve the market's debate over the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut in September; however, the employment report did intensify concerns about a cooling labor market.
usa Qualcomm inflation whistle-blower: non-farm report is not particularly bad, 50% probability of a 25/50 basis point rate cut on September.
Summers said that the August non-farm employment report in the United States was not particularly bad. The numbers in the non-farm report definitely didn't show any obvious weakness, but if there are concerns about the recent trend in statistics, they definitely did not provide evidence of a healthy economy.
The non-farm unemployment rate did not surprise, but the dovish tone of important officials from the Federal Reserve was loud. Why did the US stocks fall sharply on Friday?
"The New American Union News Agency" said that the non-farm payrolls cannot indicate the magnitude of the interest rate cut in September, and the Federal Reserve's voting members did not explicitly speak out about a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which may disappoint the market. Some analysts also say that the market has entered a new paradigm, shifting its focus from inflation to growth, and economic bad news is now unfavorable for the stock market.
US stocks close | On the "non-farm day", US stocks plummeted, with the Nasdaq down 2.55%, and NVIDIA down more than 4%; US bonds surged, with Brent oil hitting a nearly three-year low.
The poor non-farm payroll data in August may lead the Fed to support a significant interest rate cut. The S&P fell 1.7% for the week, dropping over 4%, while the Dow fell 1% for the week, dropping nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6% for the week, dropping 5.8%, entering a technical consolidation phase.