'Property Market to Pick up Next Year'
MIDLAND HOLDING: Hong Kong property prices are expected to "counterattack" next year, with an estimated increase of around 5%.
MIDLAND HOLDING expects that next year Hong Kong property prices are likely to "rebound," reversing a three-year decline, with an increase of about 5%, and rents rising another 6%.
J.P. Morgan's investment ratings and Target Prices for Hong Kong real estate stocks and Banks (table).
JPMorgan published a research report, listing the investment ratings and Target Prices for local property stocks as follows: Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price (HKD) SHK PPT (00016.HK) | Neutral | 70 HKD CK ASSET (01113.HK) | Neutral | 32 HKD HANG CHI PROPERTY (00012.HK) | Shareholding | 25 HKD SINO LAND (00083.HK) | Shareholding | 10 HKD NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) | Shareholding | 5.6 HKD SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) | Shareholding.
Hong Kong Property Stocks have all fallen. NEW WORLD DEV (00017) is down by 3.61%. The Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate cuts.
Kango Financial News | Hong Kong Property Stocks fell across the board, NEW WORLD DEV (00017) down 3.61%, LINK REIT (00823) down 2.4%, SHK PPT (00016) down 2.37%, HENDERSON LAND (00012) down 2.28%, HANG LUNG PPT (00101) down 1.74%, WHARF REIC (01997) down 1.61%. On the news front, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, and the statement hinted at a slower pace of rate cuts; the dot plot shows that next year's rate cut forecast has been adjusted from 4 cuts to 2. Powell stated that future considerations for interest rate adjustments can be more cautious.
Meridians: It is expected that MMI still has room for decline, which will have a positive effect on the Hong Kong property market.
In November 2024, the Mortgage Interest Rate Index (MMI) was reported at 3.78%, a decrease of 12 basis points from the previous month, marking a decline for six consecutive months and reaching a new low in 14 months.
According to Morgan Stanley, the outlook for Hong Kong real estate remains challenging next year, with a preference for stocks like New World Development (00016.HK) and Link REIT (00823.HK) that have sustainable dividend-paying ability.
Morgan Stanley published a research report indicating that there will be no improvement in the Hong Kong Real Estate market next year, which is expected to remain challenging, with interest rates remaining at a high level, unfavorable for the overall development of the Hong Kong property market. Although many local Real Estate stocks are undervalued, Morgan Stanley believes that market oversupply and developers' inventory accumulation are unhelpful for market development. It is currently forecasted that residential property prices will continue to decline in the first half of next year. As favorable factors such as higher mortgage ratios, the cancellation of additional stamp duty, lower mortgage rates, rising rental levels, and population Inflow emerge, they should contribute to property prices rising in the second half of next year. Morgan Stanley is Bullish on developers with sustainable dividends, preferring Sun Hung Kai Properties.
Morgan Stanley: It is expected that Hong Kong Residence prices will decline by 5% in 2025, and the property market may stabilize and reach the bottom.
Looking ahead to 2025, there will still be some downward space in the Hong Kong property market, but signs of a bottoming out seem to have emerged. The bank expects that office and retail rents will continue to decline by 5% in 2025, and retail sales are expected to fall by 5%.
Major banks rating丨Morgan Stanley: Expects Hong Kong property prices to decline by another 5% in the first half of next year, generally lowering the Target Price for real estate and House Rental Companies.
On December 13, Gelonghui reported that Morgan Stanley issued a report predicting that housing prices in Hong Kong will drop by another 5% in the first half of next year, and will turn positive in the second half, remaining flat for the entire year (previously predicted to drop by 5%). Office and retail rents are expected to decline by another 5%. Although there is valuation support, the bank believes that real estate stocks will continue to perform poorly, and has generally lowered the Target Price for real estate and House Rental Companies, focusing on the sustainability of dividends. The bank downgraded WHARF REIC's rating from 'Shareholding' to 'Shareholding', lowering the Target Price from 28 Hong Kong dollars to 20 Hong Kong dollars, and downgraded HYSAN DEV's rating from 'In line with the market' to 'Shareholding', lowering the Target Price from 14 Hong Kong dollars to 13 Hong Kong dollars.
"The big companies", Morgan Stanley predicts that next year, property prices in Hong Kong will remain stable, while office and retail rents will drop by another 5%. The Target Price for property and House Rental Companies is generally lowered.
Morgan Stanley released a report predicting that in the first half of next year, property prices in Hong Kong will fall by another 5% and turn positive in the second half, resulting in flat property prices for the year (previously forecasted to fall 5%). Office and retail rents are expected to decline by an additional 5%. Although there is valuation support, the bank believes that the performance of real estate stocks continues to be poor, and generally lowers its target prices for real estate and House Rental Companies, focusing on the sustainability of dividends. They also added two new stocks with a "sell" rating and downgraded WHARF REIC (01997.HK) from "Shareholding" to "Shareholding," reducing the target price from 28 to 20 Hong Kong dollars, and downgraded Hysan Development (00014.HK) from "in line with the market" to "
Express News | Morgan Stanley has downgraded WHARF REIC's rating to underweight, with a Target Price of 20 HKD.
According to "Hong Kong Property", Lai Fung predicts that residential property prices in Hong Kong will rise by a maximum of 5% next year, with transaction volumes increasing by 10% to 15%.
Laithwaite announced its outlook for the property market in mainland China and Hong Kong for 2025, predicting that residential property prices in Hong Kong will either remain stable or increase by 5% next year. The total number of transactions for both new and second-hand properties is expected to rise to about 0.055 million to 0.058 million, an increase of between 10% and 15%, with new property sales accounting for 35% to 40%.
Market Chatter: One-Sixth of Hongkongers Plan Home Purchases in Next Five Years, HSBC Survey Says
According to JPMorgan's "Big Industry": renting a place is still a better option for now, but buying a home for personal use may be a better choice in the long run, though it's not yet the time to "buy at a low."
JPMorgan's report states that so far this year, residential rents in Hong Kong have risen by 6%, while property prices have fallen by 6%. The bank notes that there are more reports and real estate agents claiming "oversupply of rentals" at present, but believes that, assuming the current situation remains unchanged, renting is generally still better than buying at the moment. The report points out that many people may compare the rental return on investment (3.5%) with the mortgage interest rate (3.625%), but if other costs such as management fees and taxes are also taken into account, the latest average net yield is only 3%. A more complex method involves considering the time value of money, namely calculating the net present value over 30 years. Based on this,
HSBC Research on real estate stocks investment rating and target price (table)
HSBC Global Research published a research report, listing the investment ratings and target prices for property stocks as follows: Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price (HKD) CK Asset (01113.HK) | Buy | 44.6 HKD Hang Lung Properties (00012.HK) | Hold | 26.9 HKD New World Dev (00017.HK) | Shareholding | 5.6 HKD Sino Land (00083.HK) | Buy | 10.9 HKD SHK PPT (00016.HK) | Buy | 116 HKD Wharf Holdings (00004.HK)
[Brokerage Focus] Morgan Stanley: Investors should consider the sustainability of dividends from Hong Kong property stocks.
King's Wealth News | Morgan Stanley analyzed the sustainability of dividends of Hong Kong property stocks in its research report, pointing out that the high dividend yield of Hong Kong property companies is mainly a reaction to the industry's deteriorating fundamentals by the market, rather than growth in dividends themselves. The report emphasizes that although some property companies are generous in dividends, there are doubts about whether their cash income can support this level of payout. In particular, Henderson Land (00012), New World Development (00017), Hysan Development and Henderson Development (00014) have dividends that are not fully covered by expected cash income in 2025, while CK Asset (011)
Express News | The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has launched a one-time special arrangement to assist buyers of high-priced pre-sale properties, with the mortgage ratio limit relaxed to 80 percent.
Fitch predicts that property prices in Hong Kong will record a mid-single-digit increase next year, with a preference for Sun Hung Kai Properties (00083.HK), Link REIT (00823.HK), swireproperties (01972.HK), and New World Development (00016.HK).
Futu analysts such as Huang Zihao published a report, forecasting that Hong Kong's property prices will increase by single digits next year, mainly driven by small to medium-sized units in prime locations, while projects in Kai Tak and the New Territories may lag due to ample supply. Due to the strength of the Hong Kong dollar and structural reorganization, the retail trade sales volume may record a low single-digit decline. As we enter a year of substantial completions, the office vacancy rate may rise from 13% to between 13% and 17%. The bank expects the most favorable interest rates in the first quarter of next year to fall to 5%, with mortgage rates expected to drop to 3.25%, lower than the retail residential rental yield of 3.65%, returning to a 'positive interest spread,' meaning rental yield higher than mortgage rates.
In November, the number of new mortgage registrations for Hong Kong primary real estate fell by 21.3% month-on-month, marking a record low after four consecutive months of decline.
In November 2024, the number of existing building mortgage transactions was 3,096, a decrease of 837 transactions (21.3%) compared to 3,933 in October, marking a decline for four consecutive months and reaching a new monthly low since records began in 2001.
Eased Visa Policy for Shenzhen Residents May Boost Hong Kong Developers -- Market Talk
Shenzhen has restored the "one visa, multiple entries" for travel to Hong Kong, and Sa Sa (00178.HK) rose nearly 6% in the early trading.
Starting this Sunday (December 1st), Shenzhen will resume "one visa, multiple entries" to Hong Kong, benefiting from independent travel, sa sa int'l (00178.HK) stock price received significant support this morning (29th), opening up by 1.49% and then expanding, reaching a high of 0.73 yuan, up nearly 9%. Currently at 0.71 yuan, up 5.97%, with a trading volume of 2.524 million shares, involving 1.7762 million yuan. Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is currently at 7.2 yuan, up 1.27%. Wharf REIC (01997.HK) is currently at 21.25 yuan, up 0.47%.