US stocks early trading | Donald Trump concept stocks collectively rose, DJT surged 13%, Rumble rose over 6%; Many popular China concept stocks showed strength, Xiaopeng rose over 7%, Nio Inc rose 5%
Apple rose by 0.8%, the Indonesian government recently announced a ban on selling the iPhone 16 series in the country; Boeing fell by 1.67%, and will issue 90 million shares of stocks and 5 billion US dollars in depositary stocks.
US stock market outlook | Super week is coming! Large technology stocks' earnings reports join hands with PCE, 'non-farm' explosive scene; Morgan Stanley: US stocks will continue to dominate the global market in the next ten years.
Royal Philips Q3 sales were below expectations, lowering full-year sales guidance, down nearly 17% pre-market; Bitcoin back above $68,000, cryptos concept stocks rose pre-market.
New developments in insurance funds! In the third quarter, there was a significant increase in shareholding of kweichow moutai and china telecom, while the trend of reducing strong high-dividend stocks was strong.
① As of the third quarter, insurance funds increased holdings of 68 stocks and decreased holdings of 73 stocks. The stocks that were increased mainly distribute in industries such as computers and machinery, while the stocks that were reduced mainly distribute in csi sws health care index and the electronics industry. ② Overall, insurance funds reduced their holdings of high dividend stocks, which have shown strong trends this year, and increased their holdings of some high-quality symbols that have continued to underperform the market since the beginning of the year. ③ Insurance funds switch positions depending on whether individual stocks are at high or low levels.
Options Outlook | Apple's heavyweight financial report is coming! The stock price's one-day post-performance change may approach 4%; Will AMD's profit double? Call options ratio reaches seventy percent.
Meta's current implied volatility is ±8.3%, compared to the previous four quarters, the post-earnings stock price change was approximately 9.9%, indicating that the current options value is still underestimated; as the stock price volatility has historically had a 60% chance of exceeding market expectations, the success rate of using a bullish straddle options strategy during earnings season is about 75%.
Analysis of the 'Fed's Echo Chamber': The hidden dangers of new inflation after the election.
Trump may be heading into a new feud with the Federal Reserve, and any factor that reignites inflation could lead officials to slow down or even halt interest rate cuts.
Express News | What did the China-US economic working group discuss? China revealed: In November, a large-scale incremental policy will be announced after the statutory procedures.
Futu Express | Fierce Competition! The USA presidential election enters the sprint phase, with a record-high early voting rate; NYSE's heavyweight official announcement! Intends to extend US stock trading hours.
The 14th session of the 12th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held in Beijing from November 4th to 8th; the apple AI feature Apple Intelligence officially launched this week; How difficult is shorting US stocks? Tesla's short positions, which made money this year, were wiped out in just one day.
BofA's Hartnett: The election will strengthen Wall Street's four core trades, but inflation and economic downturn will reverse everything.
Bank of America analyst Hartnett pointed out that the four core trading strategies on Wall Street now are, bearish on bonds, bullish on gold and technology stocks. Tightening immigration policies may trigger inflation, leading to further increase in gold prices. The market is worried that Fed rate cuts may lead to inflation and overheating of the economy, with bond yields unexpectedly rising after the rate cut, causing US stocks to become more concentrated. Now is not a good time to buy bonds and stocks.
Trump's cabinet: 2.0 Observation Guidelines
Minsheng Securities believes that "actions speak louder than words", which may be particularly prominent in political affairs such as the usa election, requiring special attention to the US Treasury Secretary and trade representative.
One-week lookahead | Heavyweight financial reports coming! Technology giants such as apple, microsoft are unveiling one after another; USA economic data bombardment one after another! Non-farm payroll report finale on Friday.
Multiple countries will announce their GDP for the third quarter, with the USA's economy expected to achieve an annualized growth rate of 3.3% in the third quarter; Bank of Japan interest rate decision: expected to maintain short-term interest rates unchanged, gradually reducing the scale of bond purchases.
Non-farm payrolls and election lead the November resolution, the Fed enters another silent period, will there be a leak this time?
Analysts expect that key data such as the September PCE inflation report and the October employment report will not alter the Fed's decision-making path. Economist Matthew Luzzetti said, "In other circumstances, data might influence their decisions, but this year, officials may not waver... The presidential election will not change the Fed's plan to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on November 7th."
Is it a case of making a cocoon for oneself? Research shows: Trump's tariffs have the biggest impact on the Republican strongholds.
①As the US presidential election approaches, the probability of the Republican presidential candidate Trump winning is increasing, and his radical tariff policy will inevitably impact the US and global economy; ②A recent analysis shows that within the US, the areas most severely affected by Trump's tariff policy are the Republican strongholds, as well as the swing states that may determine the election outcome.
Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF Options Spot-On: On October 25th, 126.81K Contracts Were Traded, With 1.57 Million Open Interest
On October 25th ET, $Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF(ASHR.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 126.81K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 1
US stocks early trading | The three major indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq hitting a new all-time high intraday; technology stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and cryptos all rising across the board, with Tesla and Nvidia up more than 2%.
On the evening of the 25th Beijing time, the US stock market continued to rise in early trading on Friday, with technology stocks leading the gains. Tesla continued yesterday's upward trend. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond slightly declined. The market continues to focus on US stock earnings reports, economic data, the presidential election, and the Fed's interest rate path. US durable goods orders in September fell by 0.8% month-on-month but were better than expected.
Kweichow Moutai's performance in the first three quarters meets expectations. The timing for interim dividends and buybacks has not been determined yet. | Interpretations
①kweichow moutai announced tonight that the performance in the third quarter report basically meets expectations, and the revenue growth rate also exceeds the annual guidance; ② The proportion of direct sales in the first three quarters this year has declined, which is related to the unsatisfactory performance of the company's direct sales platform 'i Moutai'. In the first three quarters, 'i Moutai' achieved alcohol tax-free income of 14.766 billion yuan, a slight decrease year-on-year; ③ Against the backdrop of weak consumer demand, whether kweichow moutai will set a lower operating target next year is heavily anticipated.
US stock market outlook | The three major futures indexes rose slightly, with Chinese concept stocks generally rising; as tesla soared, "Wood Sister" took the opportunity to sell $22 million worth of shares.
Taiwan Semiconductor rose more than 1% pre-market, and prices for sub-5nm next year may increase again; Spirit Airlines surged nearly 13% pre-market, planning to sell planes and lay off employees to reduce costs; Apple's smart phone market share in China returned to the top 5! The iPhone 16 is expected to kick off a new upgrade cycle.
BRICS Eyes Challenging Western Dominance, but Will It Be Successful?
Daily options tracking | Achieved the best single-day performance in over 11 years! Tesla's multiple call options earned more than 20 times; trading is hot! SoFi, super micro computer put options volume surged.
Nvidia's options volume yesterday was 2.64 million contracts, with call options accounting for 64.5% of the total. The highest volume was for end-of-day calls with a strike price of $140, reaching 0.23 million contracts, with an open interest of 0.08 million contracts.
After a bottom rebound of over 60%, the market is closely watching byd company limited's "overseas story".
However, for the time being, byd company limited seems to face challenges in achieving this year's overseas sales target. The company is expected to release its financial report on October 30th, with quarterly revenue likely to surpass tesla for the first time.
Zhang Kun's latest position revealed! Alibaba and Yum China have entered the top ten major stocks. I believe leading technology and consumer companies will re-enter a period of growth
At the end of the third quarter, Zhang Kun's total management volume was 69.082 billion yuan, an increase of 7.401 billion yuan over the end of the second quarter; with the exception of E-Fund Asia Select, the performance of the remaining 3 products in the third quarter was higher than the performance comparison benchmark for the same period.