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Daily options tracking | Up 14% after hours! Palantir pre-earnings options trading volume increased by 1.2 times; US bond etf call options made a profit of 200%, implied volatility level approaching historical highs before the election.
Nvidia rose by 0.48% yesterday, with its market cap surpassing Apple to become the global number one at one point. A big player bought calls worth 3 million USD; there are 45 million USD in put options on SPY, with big players betting on a drop in the S&P 500 by the end of the year.
Taking history as a mirror: What has been the trend of the US stock market after each major election?
History shows that the stock market in the USA typically rises after presidential elections, but first, it is necessary to prepare for some short-term fluctuations.
U.S. election approaching, traders' positions reversed: net long interest rates turned net short, 'fear index' VIX turned net long.
The hold positions in VIX turned net long for the first time since 2018, but the stock market position remains net long; silver's net long position has risen to an eight-year high; in recent weeks, the US dollar position has shifted from net short to net long.
How does Trump's tariff plan affect the situation? Study: American consumers' purchasing power may evaporate by $78 billion each year.
①A study released on Monday by the National Retail Federation (NRF) shows that if Trump's new import tariff proposal is implemented, American consumers could potentially lose up to $78 billion in purchasing power annually; ② The report states that if import tariffs are implemented, it will further exacerbate the impact on low-income families, tightening their budgets even more.
Asian Indexes Mostly Higher Ahead of U.S. Election Day
China Services and Composite PMI Rises in October
PMI data continues to improve! China's assets across the board are surging, what other signals are worth paying attention to?
The critical moment is about to come, and the market gives the feeling of being "dominant"!
Tmall's november 11 shopping festival-related, unexpected outbreak of home appliances.
From platforms to enterprises, and then to the policy level, this year's singles' day sales is considered a very important topic to promote consumer spending and maintain growth. As a result, this year's singles' day sales has been quite significant for several years. For consumers, there are now more reasons to reignite their enthusiasm for consumption.
Will the US stock market hit a new high after the election? Goldman Sachs: FOMO mentality helps, S&P is expected to reach 6100 points by the end of the year.
Morgan Stanley's Chief US Stock Strategist Wilson predicts that the S&P will reach a highest of 6100 points by the end of this year, equivalent to a 6.5% increase compared to last Friday's close. At the same time, he warns that due to the lack of clear catalysts, the enthusiasm of the US stock market may fade as 2025 approaches. He believes that the most favorable outcome for the stock market is Trump's re-election and a divided Congress, as markets favor uncertainty.
Futu Morning Post | Countdown to the election! The panic index VIX is burning high and uncertainty is haunting the market nerves; Up nearly 13% after hours! Palantir raises full-year revenue guidance
Jpmorgan warns: If Trump wins on Wednesday, the Fed may pause the easing cycle as early as December; Will the US stock market hit new highs after the election? Jpmorgan: FOMO psychology boosts, S&P may hit 6100 points by the end of the year; US polls: Harris and Trump are neck and neck in key 'swing states'.
jpmorgan warns: if Trump wins on Wednesday, the Fed may pause the easing cycle as early as December.
Analyst David Kelly expects that the policies of the Trump administration will expand the fiscal deficit, leading to increased inflation, which may cause the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts. If Harris wins, the Federal Reserve will maintain an accommodative stance.
US stock market morning session | The three major indices fell together, with Nvidia rising more than 1% against the market, surpassing Apple in market cap; "Trump trade" cools down, china concept stocks collectively rise.
On the evening of the 4th Beijing time, the US stock market opened basically flat on Monday. Investors are preparing for the highly anticipated US presidential election, and continue to follow this week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and US stock earnings. Nvidia will replace Intel as a component stock of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
US stock market outlook | Market suddenly reduces "Trump trade"! Polls show the outcome is unpredictable; Nvidia's pre-market rise nearly 2%, will replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
In pre-market trading on Monday, the three major futures indices showed mixed movements; popular China concept stocks generally rose in pre-market trading, with xpeng up nearly 6%; tesla's electric vehicle delivery volume in China in October decreased by 5.3% year-on-year and a significant 23% month-on-month drop.
Asia Mixed, Europe Market Rallies In US Election Week; Crude Oil Up 2% - Global Markets Today While US Slept
The twelfth meeting of the Fourteenth National People's Congress Standing Committee reviewed the proposal to increase the debt limit of local governments to replace the hidden debt.
The 12th session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee held its first plenary session on the morning of November 4th at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, chaired by Chairman ****.
Daily options tracking | Included in the Dow Jones component stocks! Nvidia rose 2% most profitable with call options doubling in a single day; "Audit Scandal" unfinished, super micro computer put options skyrocketing for consecutive days.
Amazon's performance surged by 6% after the earnings report, with large investors betting on selling put options and being bullish. The largest single transaction involved $2.7 million; China's large cap stock ETF experienced a sharp increase in implied volatility levels, as the market awaits the expected outcome.
DBS: Investors should avoid the misconception of 'election trades'.
On the eve of the US election, Goldman Sachs provides a guide on watching and avoiding pitfalls.
Analyst warning: Inflation will not disappear, FED is unlikely to cut rates significantly, and the US stock market may experience a huge shake-up next year!
①A senior financial strategist stated that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates to the very low level as the market believes, and borrowing costs may indeed start to rise from now on; ② He predicts that the stock markets in the USA and globally may decline by 7% to 12%.
Each of the 7 swing states in the USA has its own way of swinging.
This year, the swing states in the usa mainly consist of 7 states, totaling 93 electoral votes: the 'Blue Wall states' in the north - Pennsylvania (19 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), and the 'Sun Belt' states in the south - Georgia (16 votes), Arizona (11 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), and Nevada (6 votes).
Futu Morning Post | Super Heavy Week! The National People's Congress Standing Committee Meeting is coming, the critical moment of the US election showdown, the Fed leads the "Super Central Bank Week" debut.
US polls: Harris leads Trump by a slight advantage in the key 'swing states'; changing times! Nvidia will be included in the Dow, replacing Intel; Buffett sells stocks for the eighth consecutive quarter, Berkshire's cash reserves reach a new high.