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According to the internal media, experts predict that the scale of the new round of debt replacement may range from 0.06 million to 10 trillion RMB, and local governments can restart the issuance of replacement bonds.
According to the Securities Times, from the perspective of coping with local fiscal pressure and promoting the transformation of more existing implicit bonds into explicit ones, carrying out a large-scale replacement of existing implicit bonds is a necessary step to address short-term risks and strengthen debt monitoring. In the view of the interviewed experts, the scale of the new round of debt replacement may reach 6 trillion to 10 trillion yuan. Local governments can restart the issuance of 'replacement bonds', or continue to issue 'special refinancing bonds' and 'special additional special bonds' to alleviate the risk of local debt default, helping local governments to focus more energy and resources on economic development and people's livelihood security.
Citic Sec: The implementation of advanced methods of capital measurement is progressing in an orderly manner. It is recommended to reevaluate the investment value of banks.
From the perspective of bank sector investment, the revenue growth rate and profit growth rate of listed banks in the third quarter have both improved, the overall asset quality is stable, currently in the observation period of macroeconomic policy effectiveness, and subsequent policy support is expected to bring about relief of real risks, especially in credit risks in the local government financing platforms and real estate sector, which are the solid foundation for the stability of banks' net assets.
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