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On the first trading day of the New Year, Bank stocks opened high and then fell back. Many Institutions: the opening performance may be better than in previous years, but the trend of declining net interest margin remains unchanged.
① The crediting ratio between each quarter is expected to recover to a ratio of 4:3:2:1. ② It is expected that policy trends will continue, gradually boosting demand in the Real Estate sector. ③ This year, the decline in net interest margin for Banks is narrower compared to 2024, with a calculated interest margin of 1.34% under neutral assumptions.
Hong Kong stocks moved strangely | China Mainland Banking stocks collectively fell as government bond yields reached new lows, Institutions expect the revenue from banks' asset side to remain under pressure.
China Mainland Banking stocks collectively fell. As of the time of writing, the Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China (01398) dropped by 3.26%, trading at 4.89 HKD; China Construction Bank Corporation (00939) decreased by 2.82%, trading at 6.09 HKD; Bank Of Communications (03328) fell by 2.66%, trading at 6.22 HKD; China Galaxy (03988) declined by 1.26%, trading at 3.92 HKD.
In the "Big Firms" report, CITIC Securities forecasted this year's price-to-book ratio and dividend predictions for domestic banks listed in Hong Kong (table).
CICC issued a report on the outlook for China Mainland Banking this year, listing the predicted price-to-book ratios and dividend yields for H-shares: Stock │ Predicted Price-to-Book Ratio │ Predicted Dividend Yield ICBC (01398.HK) │ 0.4 times │ 6.3% CCB (00939.HK) │ 0.4 times │ 6.7% BOC (03988.HK) │ 0.4 times │ 6.4% ABC (01288.HK) │ 0.5 times │ 5.8% BoCom (03328.HK) │ 0.4 times │ 6.3% Postal Savings Bank Of China (01658.HK) │ 0.4 times │ 6.2% CMB (03968.HK) │ 0.8 times.
In "Big Banks," high interest from CICC still stands as the main investment line for China Mainland Banking this year, recommending state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank (03968.HK).
CICC published a report on the outlook for China Mainland Banking this year, predicting that the operation of the industry will be stable, and the pressure on net interest margins is expected to reduce (narrowing by about 10 to 15 basis points for the whole year). Debt disposal work will help restore the balance sheet (with a stable net non-performing loan generation rate), while the revenue and profit growth of CSI China Mainland Banks Index will continue to show stability. Looking ahead, the monetary policy is moderately accommodative, with a projected symmetric rate cut of 40 to 60 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 100 basis points. The bank believes that a high dividend strategy remains the main logic for trading in China Mainland Banking stocks in 2025, focusing on the level and certainty of dividend yield, recommending state-owned banks (A/H shares) and CM BANK (03968).