Pork Industry
- 774.951
- -0.465-0.06%
Pork prices have fallen for three consecutive months. Has the economic cycle failed?
Recently, pork prices have shown a continuous downward trend, and the industry’s prosperity cycle not only failed to continue but is also showing signs of gradual collapse. The Wind Pork Industry Index has significantly underperformed the market.
Costs for 90% of pig enterprises have dropped to the range of 14 yuan: many companies say there is still room for cost reduction. Will profits stabilize next year? | Industry Observation
1. The cost of 90% of the listed pig companies has dropped to the range of 14 yuan per kilogram, including five companies such as Sunlon, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff Group, which have dropped to the range of 13 yuan per kilogram; 2. Several listed pig companies have indicated that there is still some room for cost reduction in the fourth quarter and next year; 3. Industry insiders believe that the cost reduction achievements have become a moat for the long-term development of pig companies, helping companies expand their profit margins and enhance their risk resistance capabilities.
central china: Focus on the improvement of the fundamentals of meat products brought by the rebound in pork prices.
central china Securities released research reports stating that in 2024, based on the market innovation vitality of emerging categories, central china Securities recommends focusing on the following sectors: health products, soft drinks, baking, snacks, and other wines.
Donghai Securities: It is expected that pork prices will remain robust in the fourth quarter, and the performance of pig enterprises will improve season by season. The industry is entering a phase of profit realization.
Sow inventory began to decline from January 2023, leading to a gradual reduction in current supply pressure. With limited short-term supply increase and seasonal improvement in consumer demand, it is expected that pork prices will remain prosperous in the fourth quarter, with pig performance improving seasonally, and the industry entering a phase of profit realization.
Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Pork prices have been continuously falling for two months! It is expected to rebound in the peak season at the end of the year. The high performance elasticity and long-term profitability prospects of the breeding stocks
After entering the traditional peak season of consumer demand in the fourth quarter, pork prices have been continuously falling for over two months during the traditionally strong period, with a decrease of over 20%.
In the fourth quarter, the pig prices staged an ultimate showdown between bulls and bears, determining whether the pig industry will be "fat or thin" next year. | Industry Observation
①The pork price has been falling continuously for two months in the traditional high season, with a decline of over 20%; ②Behind the decline, there is an increase in slaughtered pigs corresponding to the expansion of piglets, as well as a concentrated slaughter of secondary fattening pigs, jointly forming downward pressure; ③If the pork price in the fourth quarter is not prosperous in the 'peak season', the pig cycle may end directly if the uptrend in the pig cycle is realized, the pig enterprises and the breeding industry still have the hope of a 'good year' in 2025.
Huafu Securities: Pork prices are adjusting with fluctuations, and the price difference between lean and fat continues to widen.
Looking ahead, with the national temperature dropping, pork demand will gradually improve. Against the background of limited supply growth and cautious production operation, pig prices are expected to rebound in the peak season at the end of the year, and pig enterprise profits are expected to continue to be released.
Pork prices are skyrocketing, combined with a bull market 'pouring wealth from the sky', pig enterprises are expected to regain their king status.
After a period of correction, the pork prices are showing a "thunderous takeoff" trend.
In September, the group's pig farming enterprises actively slaughtered, and the profitability of Q4 breeding may continue | Industry Trends
1. The pig price continues to rebound, combined with continuous cost decline, leading to a simultaneous increase in volume and price of pig enterprises in the third quarter. 2. In September, the average sales price of the group's pig enterprises ranged between 18.6 yuan/kg and 19 yuan/kg, with the majority of pig enterprises' breeding costs around 14 yuan/kg, and the profitability of breeding companies is considerable. 3. It is widely believed in the industry that there is still profit space expected for pig enterprises in the fourth quarter.
haitong sec: Holiday pig prices first suppressed and then rose, with a significant expansion in the price difference between lean and standard pigs.
The benchmark supply of live pigs depends on the number of breeding sows and production efficiency. The months of November and December 2023, and January 2024, are the stages with the fastest capacity digestion, with the relative low level of breeding sows. It is also the most serious period for winter diseases, corresponding to the insufficient baseline supply in October.
GF Securities: Pig prices in the fourth quarter are expected to continue to be strong, focusing on the recovery of autumn aquaculture seedlings.
During the National Day holiday, pork prices continue to fluctuate. Considering the significant decrease in the number of piglets born in the first half of the year, combined with the traditional peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, it is expected that pork prices in the fourth quarter will continue to maintain strong performance.
Hong Kong A shares are collectively active! A-share trading volume exceeded 1 trillion in 35 minutes. How do you view this round of "policy big gift package"?
After 35 minutes of trading, the trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, up over 400 billion yuan from the previous trading day's volume, with Shanghai's trading volume at 439.2 billion yuan, Shenzhen's at 557.9 billion yuan, and Beizheng 50's at 5.9 billion yuan, breaking the fastest trillion-dollar record in history.
Has the cold winter passed? Pig feed demand is now turning around: frontline salespeople are selling 100 tons more in a single month compared to the beginning of the year.
1. Impacted by the recovery of the breeding market, the demand for front-line pig fodder is increasing. Some front-line fodder sales staff mentioned: "In September, they sold 100 tons more in a single month compared to January". 2. Although the pig feed has shown continuous improvement on a month-on-month basis, there is still a gap compared to the same period last year. 3. Some industry insiders believe that the improving demand for pig feed, coupled with low raw material costs, may become a support point for future corporate performance improvement.
At the end of the month, the increase in piglet sales led to a decrease in pork prices.
According to Zhuochuang News on September 26th, as of the 26th, the national average trading price of foreign three-yuan live pigs was 18.06 yuan/kg, down 0.17 yuan/kg compared to the previous period.
Piglet prices have been 'halved,' causing divergent opinions on restocking in the breeding industry. The industry expects pig farming to remain profitable next year. | Industry News
①The price of piglets has plummeted, almost halving from the highest point this year, with some areas seeing 7KG piglets drop to 140 yuan each; ②At the breeding end, the sentiment for replenishment is now differentiated, with some breeders steadily replenishing while others are quite cautious; ③Most breeders and industry experts are optimistic about the overall market outlook for next year, with profitability still being the mainstream trend.
After the holiday, the demand will decrease, and the pig price will stop rising and turn downward.
According to a joint report by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission and Zhuochuang News, as of September 11, the national feed-to-pork price ratio was 6.37, a decrease of 1.09% compared to the previous week. Based on current prices and costs, the average profit per hog in the pig farming model for piglets and fattening is 554.40 yuan.
August is the peak period of profitability for pig enterprises, with daily profits exceeding one billion yuan. | Industry News
①In August, the pig market continued to recover, with sales prices of major pig companies reaching a new high this year; ②The peak of profitability for pig companies still focuses on reducing costs and increasing efficiency. Muyuan Foods, Shennong Group, and Wens Foodstuff Group have all reduced their fully loaded costs to below 14 yuan/kg; ③Some industry insiders believe that breeding companies will continue to maintain a considerable profit trend this year.
Express News | China Merchants Securities: The future pig prices may still be promising, and pig farm profits are expected to accelerate release.
The behavior of delayed pig supply and front-loaded high prices, as well as other factors such as secondary breeding, may have affected the market in the second half of the year.
According to Zhuochuang news, the overall price of live pigs has been rising this year.
Minsheng Securities: Pig prices continue to fluctuate in a high prosperity range, waiting for positive transmission in the later cycle.
The number of newborn piglets has reached a turning point in October 2023, which means that the turning point for the slaughter volume of pigs will begin in April 2024, six months later, and the pressure on pig supply will gradually decrease in the later period.