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The central bank today conducted a 981 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation for 7 days, with short-term fluctuations in liquidity being controllable, and the market expects a possible reserve requirement ratio cut in November.
①Today, 12.2 billion yuan reverse repos will mature, in addition to 1450 billion yuan MLF and 80 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits maturing. The central bank conducted a 981 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation. Industry insiders believe that under the new framework of the central bank, there may be a reserve requirement ratio cut once this year, possibly as early as November.
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① With Trump winning the presidential election in the usa, it has raised concerns in the market about tariff issues; ② In recent years, south korea, Vietnam, and other countries have obtained huge trade surpluses with the usa, which may become the next target of Trump's tariff policy.
Over 1.5 trillion funds will mature this week, and the market is once again calling for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Will the reserve requirement ratio be cut in late November to lower interest rates early next year?
1. Mid-term interest rate cuts are subject to dual constraints of exchange rates and net interest margins; it is more feasible to reduce the reserve requirement ratio in the short term, and it is expected to be announced in late November and implemented in early December. 2. To maintain flexibility, it is necessary to retain the possibility of offsetting the additional tariffs imposed by the United States through devaluation. 3. The best window for further interest rate cuts in China is expected to be before Q1 of 2025.
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Caixin C50 Wind Direction Index Survey: Fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, while the central bank still has ample room for expansion.
① The median forecast for new RMB loans in October is 0.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.16 trillion yuan; ② The median forecast for new social financing scale in October is 1.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.38 trillion yuan; ③ The year-on-year reading of CPI in October may remain unchanged, while the year-on-year decline in PPI may narrow; ④ Fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, and the central bank still has ample space for expanding its balance sheet.
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Caixin C50 Wind Index Survey: October crediting may be slightly tight, expected slight decrease in social financing growth.
①The median forecast for new RMB loans in October is 0.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease in incremental growth of 0.16 trillion yuan; ②The median forecast for new social financing scale in October is 1.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease in incremental growth of 0.38 trillion yuan; ③October CPI year-on-year reading may remain unchanged, while PPI year-on-year decline may narrow; ④Fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, and the central bank still has a relatively large space for balance sheet expansion.