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Behind the sharp drop in oil prices, jpmorgan's "perplexion": Where did the sudden emergence of 45 million barrels of oil come from?
JPMorgan believes that global crude oil inventories are underestimated as a key factor. The additional inventory may be stored in underground facilities, making it difficult for satellite monitoring companies to accurately track specific changes. Oil industry expert Ilia Bouchouev states that when estimating crude oil supply and demand data, investors are like groping in the dark, making it difficult to obtain precise results.
Subsidies for photovoltaic and wind energy should all be cut! Potential Treasury Secretary pick for Trump: will cut federal spending with Musk.
①John Paulson, the 'backer' of Donald Trump, recently stated that if he ultimately becomes the new Secretary of the Treasury of the usa, he will cooperate with Tesla's CEO Musk to jointly formulate policies that significantly reduce federal spending; ②Paulson said that all tax subsidies for inefficient and uneconomical energy sources such as cecep solar energy and wind energy should be canceled, which will reduce fiscal expenditures.
After the usa election, tensions with Iran may escalate, causing oil prices to soar.
Standard Chartered Bank warns that the market has "relaxed too quickly" regarding the risks in the Middle East, and the two months before the US presidential inauguration on January 20 is a potential period of escalating conflicts.
Jim Cramer Says Chevron Corporation (CVX) CEO Mike Wirth 'Knows What He's Doing'
Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% in the past three months! Will OPEC+ dare to take action?
Citigroup and JPMorgan have already forecasted that oil prices will fall to the range of $60 next year, and if OPEC+ opens the "tap", prices could even be lower.
How to conduct 'Trump trade' in the market?
Taking everything into consideration, the 'Trump trade' leads to rising US bond yields, a stronger US dollar, and a higher certainty of bitcoin increasing, which trades more on the upside against US stocks and copper prices, while leaning bearish on gold, with uncertain impacts on oil prices. Based on the trading results from the previous market, the 'Trump trade' is not 'bearish for copper and oil, bullish for gold', indicating a certain divergence from the judgment based on policies.