Is it stable? The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next month has reached 80%.
① Last night, the completely market-expected usa October CPI data did not cause much of a stir in the market; ② However, the data performance still boosted market confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut next month, and stimulated a rebound in short-term US government bonds.
Where is the end point of this round of Fed rate cuts? Goldman Sachs: Around 3.25-3.5%, 100 basis points higher than the peak of the previous cycle.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that there are two main reasons for the adjustment of the neutral rate, including the rise in interest rates in the bonds market and the updated estimates of the neutral rate by economic models. Furthermore, the adjustment is also supported by current strong fiscal spending and non-monetary policy factors such as risk appetite.
The reason for Trump's sudden announcement about "Musk" has been found! A well-known financial blog: usa's deficit surged an astonishing 22% in October.
Officials from the usa Treasury Department stated that the budget deficit in October of this year will increase by 22%, skyrocketing to an astonishing 257.5 billion dollars. A well-known financial blog pointed out that unless Trump announces cuts to tens of trillions in spending from the efficiency department led by Musk, the debt will continue to rise.
Former US Treasury Secretary warns Trump: Do not fulfill campaign promises, or else face inflationary impact.
Summers stated that if Trump fulfills his campaign promises, inflation will be even worse than when it reached a 40-year high last time.
Is it time to cool down the 'Trump trade'? Hedge fund big shots: US stocks won't skyrocket!
① Nielsen Peltz, the CEO of the hedge fund company Trian Partners and billionaire investor, is confident about the incoming Trump administration; however, he believes that the stock market rebound will not last. ② Peltz stated in an interview on Wednesday that investors are caught up in speculation and the market will gradually cool down.
The Republican Party won a majority of seats in the House, but the slim advantage brings challenges.
House Republicans are expected to win a majority of seats in the next Congress, giving them unified control that allows Trump to have more say in budget and tax battles. However, given that the Republican majority is expected to be narrow and internal consensus may be difficult to achieve, this could hinder their efforts to advance Trump's agenda.