Eurozone Consumers Feel the Chill
Express News | Nomura: The European Central Bank's deposit rate may drop to 1.75% or below in 2025.
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The "last mile" challenge of inflation reappears, will central banks in Europe and the United States only slowly reduce interest rates in 2025?
The USA PCE price index has rebounded year-on-year for two consecutive months, and the United Kingdom CPI inflation has also jumped from 1.7% in September to 2.6%, exceeding the target level of 2%. Currently, traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once next year, with a 50% probability of a second rate cut, whereas a month ago, expectations were for two rate cuts; it is anticipated that the Bank of England will cut rates twice next year, a decrease from the four rate cuts expected in October.
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Eurozone Current Account Surplus Falls in October
ECB committee member: The European Central Bank should maintain a consistent pace of interest rate cuts.
On December 19, Gelonghui reported that ECB Governing Council member Simkus stated that as inflation increasingly comes under control, the European Central Bank should continue to reduce borrowing costs at the current pace. Simkus mentioned that the downward direction of monetary policy is clear. He warned that while price risks for 2025 appear balanced, there could be downside risks in 2026. "When it comes to future decisions, they will be determined by the data available at that time. The best case scenario is to gradually and continuously lower to a neutral interest rate." Analysts expect the ECB to reduce the deposit rate from the current 3% to 2%. Market investors anticipate the path.
German Sentiment Likely to Improve After Elections -- Market Talk