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The path of interest rates at the United Kingdom central bank is under doubt, with the 30-year UK government bond yield reaching a 26-year high.
The uncertainty of the economic outlook in the United Kingdom has intensified, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching a 26-year high. The reasons behind this are, firstly, that the UK government's borrowing has exceeded official expectations this year, which may lead to an increase in UK government bond supply next year, bringing additional risks to the market. Secondly, there are divergences within the Bank of England regarding interest rate cuts, making it difficult for the market to accurately predict future interest rate trends. Thirdly, inflationary pressures coexist with weak economic growth, increasing the difficulty of policy forecasting.
Analyst: The Bank of Japan may delay interest rate hikes until May next year.
On December 20, in a statement by Analyst Justin McQueen, the stance of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at the monetary policy meeting unexpectedly did not include a commitment to recent policy tightening. This caused the yen to rise significantly and sparked concerns among Japanese officials about recent trends. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated, "The overall situation of wage trends will become clearer in March and April next year," which seems to open the door to delaying interest rate hikes until May. However, this may be more about not cornering oneself than leaving some options open. It is worth noting that starting from the end of January, the U.S.
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Kazuo Ueda releases a dovish stance, and both Bank of America and Nomura have postponed their expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.
After the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, expressed a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts, analysts from Bank of America and Nomura Holdings pushed back their expectations for the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike from January of next year to March.