Overtaking on the bend? The Fed cuts interest rates, mid-cap stocks will significantly outperform the market!
The analyst pointed out that history indicates that once the Federal Reserve truly begins to cut interest rates, mid-cap stocks will significantly outperform the market.
Daily options tracking | Chinese concept stocks continue to soar! Nio Inc's multiple call options exploded by more than 2 times; Tesla extended volatility level raised to the highest of the year, with major players selling over 0.1 billion US dollars wort
"Whale holders" MSTR rose more than 6% on the previous trading day, the put options accounted for 36.7% ; Among the outstanding contracts, the highest volume of call options with a strike price of $200 expiring this Friday, was 0.012 million contracts.
Fed rate cut assistance! US bonds expected to set a record for the longest monthly consecutive increase in 14 years.
①As the Federal Reserve seeks to achieve a soft landing for the economy, it may cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points this year, and US Treasuries are currently on the rise; ②According to the Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Index, US Treasuries have brought investors a return of 1.2% so far in September, and are poised for a fifth consecutive month of gains, making it the longest rising trend since 2010.
Under the tide of Fed rate cuts, U.S. stocks are bullish to lead the way for the whole year, while U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar are being neglected!
With the continuous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, most respondents predict that the performance of the US stock market for the remaining time this year will surpass the government and corporate bonds market.
Guosen Securities: Will the Fed "stabilize the dollar" or "stabilize US bonds"? Global funds' views on US assets may change.
CICC Securities stated that looking ahead, the Federal Reserve's decisions may continue to be 'tight', and after a period of 'stabilizing US bonds', it is not ruled out that 'stabilizing the US dollar' may once again push the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy direction. These factors may affect the global perception of US assets.
After the surprise rate cut, Federal Reserve officials are pushing for a "steady loosening" of the monetary floodgates.
①Mussalem told the media that the US economy may react "very strongly" to overly loose financial conditions, which will stimulate demand and extend the time needed to bring inflation back to 2%; ② He acknowledged that the US labor market has cooled down in recent months, but given the low layoff rate and overall strong economy, he remains optimistic about the prospects.
Economists: The employment market in the usa is approaching a turning point, and the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will "accelerate".
Founder of Rosenberg Research and top economist David Rosenberg said that the US employment market is facing a key turning point, which may mean that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates faster than expected.
The Fed's 'favorite' inflation indicators continue to cool down! The core PCE in August compared to 0.1%, hitting a new low since May.
"The New York Fed communicator" Nick Timiraos commented on this month's PCE data, saying that the PCE indicator favored by the Fed is not far from the Fed's target.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On September 27th, 437.4K Contracts Were Traded, With 4.68 Million Open Interest
On September 27th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 437.4K options for the day, of which put options accounted
Wall Street expects further significant interest rate cuts, but Federal Reserve officials disagree!
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Federal Reserve observation tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25bp and 50bp in November is basically fifty-fifty. Most officials believe that the Fed has made significant progress in balancing inflation and economic objectives. Deutsche Bank believes that if the next two non-farm reports show further deterioration in the job market, there will definitely be another 50bp rate cut in November.
PCE data continues to cool down! The market still slightly favors a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
USA's August PCE data showed a month-on-month growth rate lower than expected, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to continue further interest rate cuts for the remaining time this year and next year.
Back to flaunt again? "New American Federation of Communications": Cutting interest rates does not guarantee a soft landing.
From a certain perspective, Timiraos' articles seem to attract more market attention than those of Wall Street banks and some Federal Reserve officials; on Friday morning peking time, this figure, who can stir up the interest rate market in usa, published a latest column titled 'Rate cuts do not guarantee a soft landing'.
The Best Bond Moves to Make in an Era of Lower Interest Rates
About the heavyweight interest rate pricing benchmark! The "third figure" of the Federal Reserve announced the establishment of a new institution.
①New York Fed President Williams announced on Thursday that the New York Fed will establish an institutions composed of private market participants to oversee the usage of interest rate benchmarks or reference rates in the entire financial market; ②This institution will be named the Reference Rate Usage Committee (RRUC), with the first meeting scheduled for October 9th.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On September 26th, 217.91K Contracts Were Traded, With 4.64 Million Open Interest
On September 26th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 217.91K options for the day, of which put options accounted
A large-volume trade has recently emerged in the usa short-term interest rate market, with the scale setting a record high in the SOFR futures history.
Some analysis suggests that this trade may be betting on the Fed's loosening magnitude this year being lower than the current expectations.
Fed's substantial interest rate cut "aftermath": "Inflation Ghost" reappears in the bond market!
①There are signs that the Federal Reserve's active initiation of a loose cycle is rekindling concerns about inflation in the US bonds market; ② Some investors are worried that the loose financial environment may rekindle price pressures.
Under Powell's leadership, the Fed became even stronger after a sharp interest rate cut, and it is not difficult to cut another 50 basis points.
Powell is now a more powerful chairman, and if the labor data disappoints again, he may have another opportunity to persuade colleagues to support a 50 basis point rate cut.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On September 25th, 112.97K Contracts Were Traded, With 4.59 Million Open Interest
On September 25th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 112.97K options for the day, of which put options accounted
The Federal Reserve aggressively cut interest rates, triggering a new inflation storm in the US bond market.
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points to open a new round of easing, however, this aggressive move has reignited inflation concerns in the usa bond market, with some investors worrying that the relaxation of the financial environment may reignite price pressure.