What kind of outcome will "irrational exuberance" combined with interest rate cuts bring?
As the Federal Reserve prepares to further ease monetary policy against a backdrop of relatively loose financial conditions, the fiscal policy in the USA remains highly expansive. The resulting turmoil in the Bonds market is beginning to extend to the stock market, with the Dow Jones setting a record for its longest consecutive decline in four years last week.
Expectations for a pause in interest rate cuts next year are rising, with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds experiencing five consecutive declines, facing their worst week this year.
The 30-year USA Treasury yield recorded the largest weekly increase this year, and the 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed the 3-month Treasury yield for the first time since 2022, ending the inversion.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On December 13th, 153.95K Contracts Were Traded, With 6.11 Million Open Interest
On December 13th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 153.95K options for the day, of which put options accounted
Trump Trade Winners: Crypto, Bank Loans, MMFs, Leveraged Funds, U.S. Small-caps
Junk Bonds Surprise With Strong 2024 Gains. But Are They Worth the Risk in 2025?
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On December 12th, 180.61K Contracts Were Traded, With 6.06 Million Open Interest
On December 12th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 180.61K options for the day, of which put options accounted
The Bonds market has fallen into a "guessing game": what is the Federal Reserve's interest rate anchor?
Due to the diversity in estimating the neutral interest rate, the market has a wide range of opinions regarding the outlook of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the bond market often experiences sharp fluctuations after each release of economic data. When this month's non-farm payroll report was released, the volatility of the two-year US Treasury yield was on average six times larger than before 2022.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On December 11th, 193.96K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.96 Million Open Interest
On December 11th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 193.96K options for the day, of which put options accounted
Treasury Yields Rise as CPI Keeps Fed Cut on the Table -- Market Talk
Treasury Yields Recover as Fed Is Expected to Cut, Then Pause -- Market Talk
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On December 10th, 365.26K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.75 Million Open Interest
On December 10th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 365.26K options for the day, of which put options accounted
When the US stock market has a fondness for Trump, the US debt has fallen in love with Bensent...
① The usa national debt market, which has reached a scale of 28 trillion dollars, seems to be becoming increasingly "politicized"; ② If the continuous record highs of the us stock market after the usa elections indicate that the bull market is "fond of" Trump, then the current bond market seems to have "fallen in love with" Bessent.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On December 9th, 228.91K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.73 Million Open Interest
On December 9th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 228.91K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 9
The market reluctantly accepts the employment data as U.S. Treasury yields rise.
On Monday (October 9), as investors continue to assess how the latest employment data will affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week, yields rose slightly.
After the non-farm payroll report was released, the FOMC members stepped in to "manage expectations": the Federal Reserve is at or near a point of slowing down interest rate cuts.
In 2024, FOMC voting member Harker stated that the Federal Reserve is "at or near" the point of slowing down interest rate cuts; Federal Reserve hawkish official and board member Bowman, who has permanent voting rights during her term, indicated that progress on inflation seems to have stagnated and still believes that inflation is more concerning than the labor market.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On December 6th, 175.03K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.74 Million Open Interest
On December 6th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 175.03K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 6
Dr. Rubin, the doomsday doctor: Trump will lead the usa into stagflation.
Roubini believes that at least two policies will increase long-term inflation risks: one is to strictly limit immigration or even to carry out large-scale deportations of immigrants, and the second is tax reduction policies that lead to a vicious expansion of fiscal deficits, further disrupting and weakening the position of the dollar.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On December 5th, 295.32K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.69 Million Open Interest
On December 5th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 295.32K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 8
Sell Tesla stocks! The global "most bullish retail investor" is shifting focus, investing in short-term US government bonds.
After Tesla's increase of 38% in November, Tesla's "most outstanding retail investor" Leo KoGuan has recently publicly stated that he is selling Tesla stocks and investing the funds into short-term usa treasury bonds.
Goldman: December 25bp Rate Cut Expected, but Easing May Slow Sooner