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Where is the end point of this round of Fed rate cuts? Goldman Sachs: Around 3.25-3.5%, 100 basis points higher than the peak of the previous cycle.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that there are two main reasons for the adjustment of the neutral rate, including the rise in interest rates in the bonds market and the updated estimates of the neutral rate by economic models. Furthermore, the adjustment is also supported by current strong fiscal spending and non-monetary policy factors such as risk appetite.
The International Financial Association warns: During Trump's term, the usa national debt will "explode in growth".
①The analyst of IIF stated that the incoming President Trump has already planned to cut taxes without reducing spending, which will increase the US national debt from the current 100% of GDP to over 135% in the next 10 years; ② Musk had previously boasted that he could save 2 trillion dollars for the US government. However, economists are skeptical of the feasibility of this approach.
The Republican Party won a majority of seats in the House, but the slim advantage brings challenges.
House Republicans are expected to win a majority of seats in the next Congress, giving them unified control that allows Trump to have more say in budget and tax battles. However, given that the Republican majority is expected to be narrow and internal consensus may be difficult to achieve, this could hinder their efforts to advance Trump's agenda.
Futu Morning Post | Interest rate cut in December stabilized? Fed officials said inflation is developing in the right direction; The market didn't stop spinning for the first time! Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited stated that it remains fully oper
The usa October CPI met expectations, Wall Street indicates that a rate cut next month is basically certain, with a potential slowdown next year; Trump nominated candidates for Secretary of State and several other important positions, and the Republican Party nearly secured control of the House of Representatives.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President: The Federal Reserve's goals are close to being achieved, and the policy should remain "moderately restrictive."
St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that the Fed's inflation and employment goals are close to being met.
Wall Street comments on CPI: A rate cut next month is basically certain, but the pace of rate cuts next year may slow down due to Trump's policies.
Wall Street analysts say that CPI data in line with expectations can almost guarantee that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, but the market still needs to assess the impact of inflation caused by the next US president, Trump, which may lead to the Federal Reserve slowing down its rate cuts next year.