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Between Trump's Trade and Powell's panic, how should investors make their choice?
The formidable adversary of the Trump Trade has emerged: Powell's impact has been felt. After experiencing Powell's hawkish shift, the once-booming Trump Trade is showing signs of fatigue. Between the Trump Trade and Powell's panic, how should investors decide?
The impact of the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cuts continues, and "higher for longer" has returned to investors' attention.
Federal Reserve officials now predict that the rate cuts in 2025 will be smaller. In the final trading days of this year, the Federal Reserve will re-adopt the "higher for longer" policy stance.
Is a rate cut causing trouble? This may be the "most painful" loosening cycle of the Federal Reserve in decades.
① Many homebuyers in the USA had hoped that the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates to make mortgage rates cheaper. However, so far, mortgage rates have significantly increased after the Federal Reserve's "three consecutive rate cuts"; ② In fact, in the eyes of some industry insiders, especially investors in the Bonds market, this may be the most "painful" period of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle in decades...
Institutions: How to expect a rate cut for various Assets?
After the hawkish interest rate cut, trade related to the interest rate cut became the dominant logic temporarily, leading to a breakout of US Treasury yields and the US dollar upwards, while US stocks and Gold experienced a significant decline. However, with the approach of January 20 when Trump takes office, the impact of his policies is bound to "make a comeback". Moreover, it is believed that the current hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is not necessarily bad for the US economy and US stocks, and there is no need to swing from the extreme of a "large interest rate cut" in September to the other extreme of "unable to cut rates" now.
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The "Three Witches" day caused huge fluctuations in the US stock market, as shorts covered their positions leading to a sharp rise during the day, but market volatility may continue into next week; several Federal Reserve officials supported a cautious approach to interest rate cuts next year, relying on data, while Powell's "dovish allies" rarely spoke in a hawkish tone.
Bond Traders Turn to 2025 Amid Most Agonizing Easing in Decades