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December US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slows
The biggest obstacle to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025: inflation and Trump.
The anti-inflation process has stagnated, and meanwhile, under Republican control, several Congressional agendas will further increase inflation.
Goldman Sachs strategists warn: The pricing of U.S. stocks is at a "perfect level" and is likely to experience a pullback.
Goldman Sachs' Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned that as investors digest the uncertainty surrounding rising Bond yields, overvaluations, and further interest rate cuts, the current "perfect" earnings market environment may be difficult to sustain.
Tonight's non-farm payroll report is coming! Signals of a slowdown in employment growth have emerged, and the health status of the labor market will soon be revealed.
With the recent continuous rise in the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields, the market is highly focused on the upcoming US non-farm employment data for December, which will be announced at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday.
Quietly, the Federal Reserve has given more attention to this "new" inflation Indicators.
Including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, senior officials of the Federal Reserve are increasingly focusing on a lesser-known inflation Index—the market-based version of the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index, which excludes a range of service industry data that its collectors cannot measure directly and must estimate. Currently, this Index is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, potentially indicating that the threshold for further interest rate cuts is lower than the market anticipates.
The outlook for Trump's policies is uncertain, the Federal Reserve is cautious, and this year the voting committee unanimously supports gradual interest rate cuts.
This year, the voting member and President of the Boston Federal Reserve, Collins, stated that the economic outlook is very uncertain, and requires a gradual and patient approach to interest rate cuts, expecting the number of cuts this year to be reduced to two from previous expectations; another voting member this year, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, Schmidt, stated that if economic data improves, it supports gradual rate cuts; the Federal Reserve is close to the neutral interest rate, nearly achieving the dual mandate of inflation and employment, and further balance sheet reduction is needed; the 2026 voting member, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Harker, stated support for further rate cuts this year, but the timing depends on the data, and action should be paused for now; the 2027 voting member, President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, stated that it is the term premium, not inflation, that drives up long-term interest rates.