Non-farm strong? Wall Street still has doubts: there is expected to be a big adjustment in October, and the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December.
Citigroup believes that seasonal adjustments may have magnified the September data, and it is the lower quit rate rather than strong hiring that is driving up the employment figures. The current trend of weakening labor demand in the United States has not been broken, and future employment data will undergo more drastic revisions, eventually prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in December.
Non-farm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations, "no more interest rate cuts this year" enters Wall Street discussion.
After the non-farm payroll data was released, the expectation for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts in the next four meetings is less than 100 basis points. Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni believes that the Fed's monetary easing policy for the year may have already come to an end, considering the market's aggressive rate-cut pricing, any additional easing policy could increase the probability of a stock market crash.
The U.S. non-farm payroll data is too hot, Summers called the Fed's aggressive rate cut last month a mistake.
1. The CBOT's "Fed Watch" tool shows that after the report was released, the market expects a 99.1% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November; 2. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers posted that the Fed's "50 basis point rate cut in September" was a mistake.
September's strong non-farm employment pusher behind the scenes: Before the election, record seasonally adjusted and "civil servant" positions.
The seasonal adjustment amplitude in September has refreshed the highest record, while excluding the abnormal values after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in June 2020. This is also the largest monthly increase for government workers on record.
Top 20 transaction volume | Meta rises more than 2% to a new high, announcing the establishment of a new ai model MovieGen; chip stocks rise, AMD up nearly 5%, nvidia up nearly 2%
On Friday, in the US stock market, nvidia ranked first in trading volume, up 1.68%, with a turnover of $30.312 billion; tesla ranked second, up 3.91%, with a turnover of $21.519 billion; apple ranked third, up 0.50%, with a turnover of $8.436 billion.
US stocks close | The three major indices all rose, with the Dow hitting a new closing high, tesla up nearly 4%; the China Golden Dragon Index rose more than 3%, up nearly 12% for the week.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% for the week, while the Dow was slightly up, the Nasdaq rose 0.1%, the chip index fell 0.2%, and the small cap index fell 0.6%. The S&P energy sector surged over 7% for the week, marking its best performance in nearly two years.
IShares Russell 2000 ETF Options Spot-On: On October 4th, 1.11 Million Contracts Were Traded, With 12.18 Million Open Interest
On October 4th ET, $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 1.11 million options for the day, of which put options accounted for 58.59% of the
Small Caps Still Face 'a Long Road Back to the Top' – Analyst
U.S. stock market morning session | September non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, with the three major indices opening higher before falling back slightly; most technology stocks rose, with AMD, tesla, and amazon up more than 2%.
As of press time, the Dow rose by 0.63%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.03%, and the s&p 500 index rose by 0.68%.
Major Indexes Are Trading Higher Following a Strong September Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls Data.
Non-farm payrolls surged by 0.254 million people, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling. Has the US economy successfully achieved a "soft landing"?
USA companies exceeded all economists' expectations in recruiting numbers in September, with the unemployment rate falling unexpectedly to 4.1%; non-farm employment rose by 0.254 million people in September, the highest in six months.
S&P 500 Nears Record Highs On Hot Jobs Data: Dollar, Treasury Yields Surge As Aggressive Interest Rate Cut Hopes Fade
Express News | Traders wiped out the bet on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.
Nearly doubled compared to expectations! September non-farm payrolls 'exceeded expectations', is the Fed slowing down rate cuts a 'foregone conclusion'?
Powell "saves" face, and traders are now lowering their expectations for the Fed's future interest rate cuts at the next four meetings to less than 100 basis points.
Express News | After the non-farm payroll report, traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in the next four meetings are less than 100 basis points.
US stock market outlook: US September non-farm data higher than expected! Three major futures indicators surge in a straight line; will Chinese concept stocks continue to climb? Morgan Stanley: If short positions cover, it will push up the upward trend.
Bank of America: China stock fund saw the second highest inflow scale in history in the past week; European Central Bank Governing Council: inflation is under control, concerns arise as labor market cools down; spirit airlines plunged 33% before the market, the company is discussing potential bankruptcy application terms.
Express News | US Sep. Non-Farm Payrolls +254000 Vs +140000 Forecast, Prior +159000; US Sep. Unemployment Rate 4.1% Vs 4.2% Forecast, Prior 4.2%
The market and the Federal Reserve's game is gradually heating up! Will tonight's non-farm payrolls determine the extent of the interest rate cut?
The analyst pointed out that Powell hinted at a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December, but if the employment data is weak, a significant rate cut plan may be put back on the agenda.
"Wall Street's most accurate strategist" boldly predicts: if non-farm payrolls meet expectations, risk assets will soar.
Bank of America's strategy team stated that supporting the "soft landing" of the US economy, non-farm data will keep US Treasury yields fluctuating within a certain range, but "explosive" data and the surge in US Treasury yields catalyzed by this data will drive market risk assets avoidance.
Is the market dovishness too loud? Non-farm will be a key element of the expected adjustment!
The market is more dovish than the Federal Reserve, and ultimately both sides will have to adjust their expectations. Tonight's non-farm payrolls report is a key data point.