Tonight, be prepared to face extreme winds and heavy rain: in the most extreme case, will non-farm payrolls turn negative?
① As the United States presidential election is approaching in four days, and the Federal Reserve's November decision is just six days away, tonight's release of the October non-farm payroll data in the USA is undoubtedly expected to attract the attention of all market participants; ② The unpredictability of this highly anticipated non-farm report seems destined to be the biggest of the year; ③ In the most extreme scenario, non-farm payrolls may even show a negative value.
Trump and Harris Plans Could Stoke Inflation. That Means a More Hawkish Fed
Hawkish signals hinting at a pause in interest rate cuts? Tonight's non-farm data may provide the final clue for the Fed's actions next week.
Strong non-farm data will enhance the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to possibly pause rate cuts early next year.
The Fed may not have gotten what they wanted most, but the PCE data is not enough to change the rate cut outcome this month.
The Federal Reserve may not have received the inflation data it wanted on Thursday, but many economists believe that the new reading of the price indicator most favored by the Federal Reserve may still be sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to "cut interest rates by 25 basis points" in a step-by-step manner at its policy meeting next week.
Legendary investor once again sounds the alarm: "AI bubble" will eventually burst, leading to a collapse in the US stock market!
①Legendary investor Grantham believes that ai is a bubble, similar to past technology frenzies; ②he predicts that the US stock market will plummet significantly, but the development of ai will bring long-term transformative effects.
How were major asset classes interpreted during the 2016 election?
CITIC Securities: Recently, there has been a lot of discussion in the market about how global asset classes will evolve if Trump is re-elected. We refer to the market performance when Trump unexpectedly won in 2016 for comparative analysis. Before the 2016 election, the capital markets were dominated by risk aversion sentiment, with gold > USD and US bonds > stocks and agricultural commodities; after the election, risk assets rebounded overall, long-term interest rates continued to rise, the USD index continued its strong trend, while gold experienced a short-term decline.