Can the Federal Reserve cut interest rates next month? The crucial test is coming tonight.
As the first major data after the US presidential election, the US October CPI report, which will be released at 21:30 on Wednesday Beijing time, is likely to have a crucial impact on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve; This has also prompted some Wall Street insiders to ponder whether the next market trade theme will gradually shift from the glamorous 'Trump trade' of the past week to the interest rate perspective surrounding the Federal Reserve rate cut process...
Trump has started forming his cabinet, issuing a bunch of offers! Musk will lead the new "Department of Government Efficiency," nominating a television host as the Secretary of Defense.
President-elect Trump announced a series of appointments on Tuesday, local time, including appointing Fox News host Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, Republican lawyer Bill McKinley as White House legal advisor, John Ratcliffe as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and Congressman Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor. In addition, Trump stated that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the new 'Government Efficiency Department'.
The election market takes a breather, will 're-inflation' take over? The next two major events may determine the trend of the US stock market.
As the first major post-election data in the USA, the US October CPI report, to be released at 21:30 on Wednesday evening Beijing time, is clearly expected to have a crucial impact on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve; In addition, Nvidia will release its third-quarter performance on November 20th Eastern Time, and the company is considered to be an absolute key factor affecting the overall future trend of US technology stocks and AI concepts.
Will the USA CPI remain strong tonight, is the rate cut in December in suspense?
Wall Street expects that in October, the core CPI will increase by 3.3% year-on-year, remaining unchanged from the previous value, with a month-on-month growth rate staying at the level of 0.3% for the third consecutive month. Inflation remains sticky, and the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from around 80% before the election to about 60%. In addition, the market is concerned that Trump's policies may hinder inflation returning to the Federal Reserve's target, requiring interest rates to return to a neutral level more slowly.
Bridgewater Fund CIO: There is still room for the running of the US stock market, but it is no longer the best investment choice.
Bridgewater's CIO pointed out that there are still many reasons to believe that the stock market still has room to rise, but investors should learn from the bursting of the internet bubble.
It's regrettable! Retail investors in the usa have significantly underperformed the large cap this year...
For the US stock market, this year can be described as a record-breaking year, especially the impressive surge of major indices after the US presidential election; However, what is lamentable is that many American retail investors may have missed this once-in-a-decade opportunity to make money!