Entering the Christmas month! The Christmas market may continue to drive the U.S. stock market to new highs, with these sectors expected to become the "hottest opportunities"
Historically, in the seven trading days after Christmas, which include the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year, investors tend to be more bullish, with a high probability of an uptrend in the U.S. stock market. This seven-day period is known as the 'Santa Claus rally.' Data shows that over the past 70 years, there has been an 80% chance of the S&P 500 index rising during these seven trading days.
Will the Federal Reserve lower rates in December? This week's non-farm data is crucial.
Citi stated that Friday's non-farm payroll report will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's recent policies and future direction. If employment data is strong and inflation strengthens in November, the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate hikes at the December FOMC meeting; conversely, there is a possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut. Citi analyst Andrew Hollenhorst mentioned in a report on December 2 that, according to Powell's latest views, the usa labor market has not stabilized and is still softening. This indicates that the current policy rate is restrictive and the labor market will not be a source of inflationary pressure. This is in contrast to the current market sentiment.
Full text of "The Influential Committee Member" Waller's speech: What determines whether the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates or chooses to skip?
The speed and timing of interest rate cuts will be determined by the economic conditions encountered along the way; the balance in the labor market indicates that current policies still provide restrictive support for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. If decision-makers' estimates for the interest rate target range by the end of next year are close to accurate, it is likely that the process of achieving this goal will involve skipping interest rate cuts multiple times.
Daily options tracking: China assets ETF call options heavily bought; super micro computer stock price skyrocketed, call orders earned 4 times.
Apple rose nearly 1% yesterday, with its stock price surpassing its historical high, reclaiming the top position in global market cap, as a major investor bought 4,000 call options expiring on September 19, 2025, involving an investment of 4.38 million dollars.
Is the US stock market's upward trend over? The "fear indicator": it can still rise!
Analysts indicate that multiple indicators are closely aligned with the situation in the 2016 election year, and the overall tendency of signals still favors the bulls.
Does the Stock Market Have a Valuation Problem?