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iShares Russell 2000 ETF Newsroom
Between Trump's Trade and Powell's panic, how should investors make their choice?
The formidable adversary of the Trump Trade has emerged: Powell's impact has been felt. After experiencing Powell's hawkish shift, the once-booming Trump Trade is showing signs of fatigue. Between the Trump Trade and Powell's panic, how should investors decide?
What does the Federal Reserve's "Skip" mean for the market?
Citi Research found that during the period when the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts, the U.S. stock market usually performs well, but the sustainability of the rise depends on whether economic weakness leads to a restart of policy easing; U.S. Treasury rates usually rise at the pause or end of the cycle; for the dollar, if the interest rate cuts are only paused, the dollar performs laterally, if it is the last interest rate cut, the dollar will rise; after the pause, regardless of whether the easing cycle continues, Gold prices usually rise.
The impact of the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cuts continues, and "higher for longer" has returned to investors' attention.
Federal Reserve officials now predict that the rate cuts in 2025 will be smaller. In the final trading days of this year, the Federal Reserve will re-adopt the "higher for longer" policy stance.
Is a rate cut causing trouble? This may be the "most painful" loosening cycle of the Federal Reserve in decades.
① Many homebuyers in the USA had hoped that the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates to make mortgage rates cheaper. However, so far, mortgage rates have significantly increased after the Federal Reserve's "three consecutive rate cuts"; ② In fact, in the eyes of some industry insiders, especially investors in the Bonds market, this may be the most "painful" period of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle in decades...
Which companies will be upended by the wave of AI? Investors claim it's still difficult to predict.
The disconnect between people's expectations of AI and the actual situation highlights the uncertainty of this technology and the difficulty in predicting how it will shape the market and the economy.
Institutions: How to expect a rate cut for various Assets?
After the hawkish interest rate cut, trade related to the interest rate cut became the dominant logic temporarily, leading to a breakout of US Treasury yields and the US dollar upwards, while US stocks and Gold experienced a significant decline. However, with the approach of January 20 when Trump takes office, the impact of his policies is bound to "make a comeback". Moreover, it is believed that the current hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is not necessarily bad for the US economy and US stocks, and there is no need to swing from the extreme of a "large interest rate cut" in September to the other extreme of "unable to cut rates" now.
Futu Morning Report | Is a sell-off signal emerging? Buffett takes the opportunity to "sweep up" Occidental Petroleum and two other companies; Tesla's latest announcement: the automated driving taxi Robotaxi is accelerating its advancement.
The "Three Witches" day caused huge fluctuations in the US stock market, as shorts covered their positions leading to a sharp rise during the day, but market volatility may continue into next week; several Federal Reserve officials supported a cautious approach to interest rate cuts next year, relying on data, while Powell's "dovish allies" rarely spoke in a hawkish tone.
US Stocks Rally After Inflation Data, End Week Lower
Express News | The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is 91.4%.
Trump has a new development! He nominates several diplomatic envoys, including the owner of the Houston Rockets on the list.
Trump has new developments!
Weekly Preview | The market focuses on the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting; due to the Christmas holiday, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for two and a half days, and the U.S. stock market will be closed for one and a hal
The earnings report season for the US stock market has concluded. Due to the Christmas holiday, there will be no speeches from Federal Reserve officials this week, and the data released will be limited, but attention can be paid to the USA Consumer Confidence Index and initial unemployment claims; on Wednesday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech regarding potential yen intervention measures.
Musk causes a commotion at Capitol Hill, is a "Trump 2.0" prototype emerging?
Analysis suggests that Musk's recent act of detonating a political nuclear bomb may be a rehearsal for the Trump 2.0 era of Musk's action model, intended to exert pressure on Congress. However, some also say that the consensus at Mar-a-Lago is that Musk has proven to be an effective Weapon to pressure Congress and a scapegoat for any backlash.
Federal Reserve dovish officials: Inflation has decreased significantly, and a moderate interest rate cut is expected next year.
① The Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goolsbee stated on Friday that he slightly lowered his forecast for next year's interest rate cuts but still expects the Federal Reserve to moderately cut rates next year; ② As a dovish official, Goolsbee will replace Cleveland Federal Reserve President Harmack next year and become a new voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Is the Federal Reserve turning hawkish? Morgan Stanley: I have seen this episode!
Morgan Stanley stated that the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts depend on the implementation progress of the restrictive policies of the new Trump administration. However, the impact of these policies on economic activity may also be delayed. Therefore, while the Federal Reserve is currently hawkish, it may turn dovish later.
Why did the U.S. stock market rebound significantly? It comes from the key statements of this dovish Federal Reserve member.
Previously, he hinted that there might be a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts in 2024, which once sparked a reduction in market expectations for interest rate cuts next year. After seeing the latest inflation data, his recent remarks reaffirmed support for interest rate cuts, which undoubtedly provided a boost to the market.
Dominant market "narrative": Powell VS Trump.
After the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, the U.S. stock market nearly erased all the gains since Election Day, reflecting a divergence in market narratives: last month's surging "Trump narrative" has cooled down, while the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" stance has shifted market focus back to inflation factors.
The Federal Reserve's "third-in-command": It is expected that interest rates will continue to be cut in the future, and the impact of Trump's policies has begun to be considered.
①Williams stated that he expects the Federal Reserve to implement more interest rate cuts, but the decision on rate cuts will depend on subsequent data, as monetary policy still suppresses economic growth momentum; ②Williams acknowledged that the impact of Trump's policy agenda has begun to influence his economic outlook.
The "farce" of the USA government shutdown crisis is over! The Senate has passed a stopgap spending bill.
The bill ensures that the USA federal government continues to receive operational funding, extending the funding period from this Friday night to mid-March next year.
Express News | The U.S. Senate voted to pass an emergency funding bill to prevent a government "shutdown", which will provide operating funds for the USA government until next March.
Express News | White House spokesperson: The USA government's budget office has stopped the shutdown and is preparing work.