Changes are coming! U.S. Treasury yields have surpassed 5%, and the $18 trillion rise in U.S. stocks is facing a tough battle?
Market professionals warn that if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5%, a "knee-jerk" sell-off will occur in the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500 Index may drop by 10%.
Futu Daily Report | Jensen Huang announces NVIDIA's latest breakthroughs in physical AI, OpenAI officially enters the robotics field; December non-farm payrolls surge, US stocks "plummet back to pre-election levels overnight."
As the "Trump effect" fades, the market gains in US stocks after the election have been completely wiped out. After Friday's close, the S&P 500 Index has only increased by 0.8% since the election on November 5, which may mark the weakest performance from election day to inauguration since Obama took office in 2009.
After the soaring non-farm payrolls, the Federal Reserve's dovish "soothing": future interest rates will still "decline significantly".
Although Goolsbee continues to reassure the market, other Federal Reserve officials have pointed out that last month's rate cut was already a "difficult decision."
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Weekly Outlook | Key data such as CPI and PPI from the USA will be released, which may continue to bring volatility to the market; the Q4 Earnings Reports season for US stocks officially begins, with large bank stocks and Taiwan Semiconductor among those
China will announce the GDP growth rate for the entire year of 2024, the year-on-year GDP for the fourth quarter, the total GDP for the year 2024, the year-on-year retail sales of consumer goods for December, and the year-on-year added value of industrial enterprises above designated size for December.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path has changed! Wall Street is beginning to discuss whether to pause rate cuts or not cut at all.
A "surprising" non-farm payroll report caused a sudden change in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path.
The Incredible Growing Stock Market -- Barrons.com
Will there be a major turnaround? Wall Street's two major investment banks are focusing on "the end of January to February."
Bank of America believes that the decline in the US stock market will force the Trump administration to make concessions on tariffs, and February or March will be a good time to start investing in US bonds and the stock markets of China, the United Kingdom, and Emerging Markets. JPMorgan stated that as Trump's policy towards China and China's responses become clearer, the Chinese stock market is expected to see a reversal around the end of January.
The U.S. stock market has "returned to the state before the election overnight". What comes next?
Some Analysts are concerned that US Treasury yields may continue to soar. On the other hand, inflation in the USA exceeding expectations might lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts or even raise rates, further impacting the US stock market.
What will happen on the first day of Trump's presidency?
Over the weekend, multiple significant pieces of news about Trump were reported!
Has the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle possibly ended.
In December, the non-farm payroll employment in the USA exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate was also lower than expected. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" commented that the employment report shuts the door on a rate cut in January.
Liquidity "stress test": When will the Federal Reserve end the reduction of its balance sheet?
SWHY believes that the "normalization" of the Federal Reserve's unconventional MMF policy has a certain order, but it cannot be mechanically referenced to historical experience, as the opening of the interest rate cut cycle does not necessarily mean that the end of balance sheet reduction is just around the corner. The guiding principle for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is to change the state of reserve supply from "excess" to "adequate," which means that it should end the reduction before reaching a "shortage."
After the non-farm payroll report hit hard, Wall Street is "dizzy": Is the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts, or completely not lowering them at all?
① The unexpectedly high figures have prompted Wall Street Analysts to adjust their determinations on the USA Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts; ② A relatively unified opinion is that there is no possibility of an interest rate cut in this month's meeting, nor is it very likely in March, with significant differences in determinations afterward; ③ At this critical moment, USA Consumer inflation expectations have sharply risen, and Biden has again demonstrated the White House's ability to stir up the Energy market before leaving office.
On the eve of a big drop on Friday, David Einhorn, who became famous for profiting during the Lehman crisis, stated that the structure of the U.S. stock market is collapsing.
David Einhorn stated that due to the rise of passive investing and investors placing more importance on price rather than value, overvalued Stocks become even more overvalued and undervalued Stocks become even more undervalued. This phenomenon distorts market value and plants significant hidden risks.
"Returning to the pre-liberation era overnight"! The U.S. stock market has erased its gains after the election, and the employment report worries Wall Street about a "double loss" in stocks and bonds.
Measured by the performance of the largest Global ETF tracking the S&P and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, the total returns of U.S. stocks and bonds have been negative for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak of negative returns since September 2023. Friday's non-farm payroll report raised concerns among traders about the Federal Reserve closing the door on this round of easing.
Economic Bullish becomes a nightmare for the market! A strong employment report severely impacts U.S. stocks, and Wall Street worries about a 'double loss' for stocks and bonds.
The hope for a smooth rise in the US stock market has fallen through.
Bank of America: U.S. stock valuations are high, but a return to the mean may take some time.
According to the analysis by Bank of America's Global research team, despite the current high levels of Trade in the US stock market, investors should not expect valuations to quickly return to long-term average levels.
IWM ETF Declines 2.2%
IShares Russell 2000 ETF Options Spot-On: On January 10th, 2.26 Million Contracts Were Traded, With 10.59 Million Open Interest
On January 10th ET, $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 2.26 million options for the day, of which put options accounted for 67.18% of the
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