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One Week Ahead | Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are about to be implemented! It may become a turning point for Global Assets; Non-farm payrolls and Powell take turns to "shake the market"! The "temporary inflation theory" is attracting much attention; the H
Wednesday (April 2) is the day the Global community focuses on Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs! Prior to this, due to uncertainty regarding which specific tariffs Trump would implement, the market was more cautious; on April 4, at 00:00 on Friday, Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak, and at 23:25, Fed Chairman Powell will also deliver a speech.
Five charts to understand the "five turning points" of "lowering the dollar and raising Gold."
In the latest "Flow Show" report, Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Officer of Bank of America, pointed out that the global economy and investment landscape are undergoing fundamental changes. The current international market is facing five major structural turning points—the end of the era of big government in the USA, the transition of technology giants from "leading" to "lagging," the initiation of fiscal stimulus in Europe, the end of Japan's deflationary era, and China's shift from export to consumer—together they point to a clear trend: the US dollar will continue to weaken. The latest capital trend data has started to validate this transformation: the attractiveness of Gold and Bonds is rising, while there is a large outflow of funds from US stocks.
CITIC SEC: Market interpretation after the tariff "storm".
It is recommended to adhere to the direction of 'Technology ignition' driven by independent innovation represented by AI and Innovative Drugs, increase the control of drawdown in Hong Kong stock dividends, and if there are macro fluctuations in mid-year, capture Consumer and pro-cyclical elasticity, it is suggested to continue the configuration of the Technology main line.
Express News | Reports indicate that Trump is pressuring advisors to escalate tariff measures.
Trump: The tariff agreement can be negotiated, but it has to wait until after the increase on April 2 to talk about it!
① The President of the USA, Trump, stated on Friday that he is open to reaching agreements with countries seeking to avoid tariffs from the USA, but those negotiations will take place only after his government announces reciprocal tariffs on April 2; ② Trump also mentioned that he will soon announce tariffs on Pharmaceuticals.
"April 2" Trade Manual: Three Possible Scenarios.
Citi summarized three scenarios in its latest report: first, only reciprocal tariffs, which have a limited market reaction; second, reciprocal tariffs + Value-Added Tax (VAT), where the USD could immediately rise by 50-100 basis points, and global stock markets would also decline; third, reciprocal tariffs + Value-Added Tax + Industry-specific tariffs, where the market reaction could be more severe. Analysts are warning that the likelihood of a subsequent decline in U.S. stocks is greater than that of an increase, and others point out that future tariffs and retaliatory actions are key.