usa's October PCE inflation slightly rebounded! But the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates again in December.
The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in 2024. According to CME Group's Federal Reserve Watch tool, the market anticipates a 67% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting.
Express News | In October, the core PCE price index in the usa increased by 2.8% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since April 2024.
Bull market continues! Morgan Stanley looks at the US stock market in 2025: reaching 6,500 points by the end of next year, with high-quality cyclical stocks as the top choice.
Daiwa believes that the s&p 500, represented by high-quality stocks, will benefit from the Fed's rate cut cycle, stabilization of business indicators, policy mix, and uncertainty in economic data. However, considering that specific policies have not yet been introduced, U.S. stocks have been severely overbought, and next year's market is unlikely to "rise in a straight line," the key will be to see the Trump administration's measures in cutting fiscal spending.
Trump's tariffs have roiled the foreign exchange market, why are the U.S. stocks so calm?
Trump's tariff threats have not yet caused panic in the usa stock market, but investors should be wary of the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth in the usa and the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts.
J.P. Morgan: The usa stock market will maintain its global dominance and continue to outperform other markets.
Since the beginning of this year, driven by the technology and ai boom, the usa stock market has continued to outperform the international stock market. At the same time, the us economy remains resilient, as the Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle against the backdrop of declining inflation.
Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary exposed for past actions: once shorted the Federal Reserve!
Wall Street insiders say this trade has enhanced Bessen's reputation as an expert in financial upheaval, which is crucial for steering the usa economy in the future.
Express News | The annualized quarterly growth rate of the usa's real GDP for the third quarter was revised to 2.8%, in line with expectations.
Express News | The initial jobless claims in the usa for the week ending November 23 were 0.213 million, lower than the market expectation of 0.216 million people.
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Beware of inflation rising again! Goldman Sachs 2025 Outlook: US stocks are too expensive and underallocated, gold remains the best hedge option.
Considering the prospects of upside risks such as Trump's tariffs, geopolitical tensions, etc., Goldman Sachs recommends investors to maintain a moderate pro-risk stance in asset allocation, while balancing in a multi-asset investment portfolio: reducing the allocation of highly concentrated and overvalued US stocks, focusing on Asian stocks such as Japan, short-term government bonds, US dollars, and gold which remains the best hedging tool.
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Will there be another "huge uproar" within the Federal Reserve? The answer will be revealed tonight.
Will the Federal Reserve have another 'heated debate' internally? The answer will be revealed tonight...
Daiwa's outlook for the US economy in 2025: the era of 'high inflation, slow growth' is coming, interest rate cuts entering the 'slow lane'.
Morgan Stanley believes that Trump's immigration and tariff policies will lead the usa economy to face the dual challenges of slowing growth and persistent inflation next year: GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.9%, while core PCE inflation will remain high at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve will remain cautious about the interest rate path and is expected to begin to pause interest rate cuts in the second quarter of next year.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes are coming tonight, focusing on three major issues!
According to recent public statements from some policymakers, their reassessment of the prospects for interest rate cuts is mainly influenced by three issues.
Trump's close adviser is accused of seeking money from potential officials, conflicting with Musk and Bezos.
① Multiple sources have revealed that Trump's senior legal advisor Boris Epshteyn allegedly asked for 'consultation fees' from individuals wishing to take up government positions, prompting an investigation ordered personally by Trump; ② Trump's team spokesperson Steven Zhang stated that an internal review has been completed, but did not disclose specific results; ③ Trump has expressed strong disdain for such behavior that exploits his name for personal gain.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes and PCE price index are coming one after another! They may provide the latest clues for the market regarding interest rate cuts.
According to cme's 'Fed Watch', the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged until December is 44.1%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 55.9%.
Will Trump's policies severely damage the usa economy? Former Treasury Secretary Summers raised two major concerns.
①Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the economic policies of the Trump administration could trigger serious inflation shocks; ②He emphasized the two main concerns about the proposed economic agenda: massive demand-side stimulus and severe supply-side interruptions; ③Summers pointed out that if all of Trump's policies were implemented, the inflationary stimulus would far exceed any plans set by President Biden.