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On Trump's "first day," Emerging Markets faced difficulties, setting several records.
The opening price of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index based on expected PE is 46% lower than the S&P 500 Index, marking the largest gap since Obama's first inauguration in 2009; the average yield of local currency bonds in Emerging Markets is also lower than the yield of USA Treasuries. Analysis indicates that due to USA policy actions, a strong dollar, and high USA interest rates, Emerging Markets stocks are underweighted by investors.
Massive Interest Burden Haunts $29 Trillion Emerging Debt Pile
US Blue-Chip Bond Issuance Reaches Second-Highest Level Ever
The dynamics have changed! Under the strong US dollar, emerging markets are at risk.
Analysis suggests that under deglobalization, the growth momentum will shift from emerging markets to the USA, which will be bullish for the US dollar. If the USA further implements even larger tariffs, many currencies in emerging markets pegged to the US dollar will become even more fragile and face the risk of explosive devaluation, especially countries like Argentina, Egypt, and Turkey. The prices of csi commodity equity index will also decline.
Trump's 2.0 policy supports the strength of the dollar, while emerging markets face a double blow in both stocks and currency.
The MSCI emerging markets stocks index fell by 0.8% at one point, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, setting the longest losing streak in three weeks.
Traders reduce bets on Trump trades as emerging market assets rise.
As traders reduce their bets on Trump's victory, emerging assets surge significantly.