On Trump's "first day," Emerging Markets faced difficulties, setting several records.
The opening price of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index based on expected PE is 46% lower than the S&P 500 Index, marking the largest gap since Obama's first inauguration in 2009; the average yield of local currency bonds in Emerging Markets is also lower than the yield of USA Treasuries. Analysis indicates that due to USA policy actions, a strong dollar, and high USA interest rates, Emerging Markets stocks are underweighted by investors.
Massive Interest Burden Haunts $29 Trillion Emerging Debt Pile
US Blue-Chip Bond Issuance Reaches Second-Highest Level Ever
The dynamics have changed! Under the strong US dollar, emerging markets are at risk.
Analysis suggests that under deglobalization, the growth momentum will shift from emerging markets to the USA, which will be bullish for the US dollar. If the USA further implements even larger tariffs, many currencies in emerging markets pegged to the US dollar will become even more fragile and face the risk of explosive devaluation, especially countries like Argentina, Egypt, and Turkey. The prices of csi commodity equity index will also decline.
Trump's 2.0 policy supports the strength of the dollar, while emerging markets face a double blow in both stocks and currency.
The MSCI emerging markets stocks index fell by 0.8% at one point, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, setting the longest losing streak in three weeks.
Traders reduce bets on Trump trades as emerging market assets rise.
As traders reduce their bets on Trump's victory, emerging assets surge significantly.
Global money market funds have attracted over $20 billion in inflows for three consecutive weeks, while demand for stock funds has cooled down.
Global currency market funds have attracted inflows for the third consecutive week.
HSBC: In 2024, the issuance of bonds in EMEA emerging markets is expected to reach a record high.
jpmorgan expects that although the November US presidential election and escalating tensions in the Middle East may cause market volatility, this year the bond issuance volume in the emerging markets of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) will reach a record high.
Emerging market corporate bonds are favored. Fund managers seek high-yield and safe-haven assets.
The short duration and credit quality that usually exceeds that of the country of origin help to increase the attractiveness of trade, although the uncertainty of the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the US presidential election have suppressed the widespread rise of risky assets.
IShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF Declares Annual Distribution of $0.4915
Bank of New York Mellon Corp Increases Stake in IShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:LEMB)
Blue Edge Capital LLC Invests $1.32 Million in IShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:LEMB)
Emerging Markets: Raising Rates and Hoping For a Brighter New Year -- Barron's
EM Central Banks Lead the Way on Tightening. Bond Investors Are Waiting for Next Year. -- Barrons.com
Turkey's president and central bank chief meet as lira sinks - Bloomberg
US ETF encyclopedia | Emerging markets “rise”, these ETFs help you lay out globally
Currently, the largest emerging market ETF is VWO, launched by Pioneer. The asset management scale is about US$80.5 billion. Its holdings include many popular Chinese securities such as Tencent, Ali, TSMC, and Meituan.