LNK2506 LNK JUN5
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LNK JUN5 News
HSBC Research: This year, foot traffic and tenant sales performance in local shopping malls have improved, supported by multiple positive factors.
HSBC Research published a report indicating that in January, retail sales in Hong Kong fell by 3.2% year-on-year, a smaller decline than in December. Although part of the reason may be related to the timing of the Lunar New Year, this year's foot traffic and tenant sales performance have both improved. The bank pointed out that the retail market in Hong Kong still faces several challenges, but believes that investors may be overly pessimistic about the market. If retail sales in Hong Kong regain positive growth, operators like Wharf Real Estate Investment Company Limited (01997.HK) may bring positive surprises to investors. HSBC Research further mentioned that Hong Kong has several positive factors, as the government recently announced the reinstatement and expansion of the Shenzhen residents' "one permit, multiple entries" program in January.
Morgan Stanley predicts that Hong Kong's retail sales will still experience negative growth for the whole year, preferring Link Reit (00823.HK).
Morgan Stanley published a report indicating that Hong Kong's retail sales in January fell by 3.2%, in line with market expectations of a 5% year-on-year decline, benefiting from the early Lunar New Year. Sales of Luxury Goods remain weak. The bank anticipates that retail sales in February will drop by 8% year-on-year, and that the first two months are expected to decline by 6% year-on-year. The report stated that WHARF REIC (01997.HK), Link REIT, and Hysan (00014.HK), which have retail exposure, underperformed the Hang Seng Index by 42 to 43 percentage points last year, and this situation is believed to continue this year, with an anticipated underperformance of 1 to 12 percentage points. Hong Kong's retail sector has seen negative growth for 11 consecutive months. The bank predicts that retail will still experience negative growth this year, indicating that.
Daily Bull and Bear | The Hang Seng Index is oscillating at a high level, with the ratio of bull certificates on the street rising significantly to 65%; Xiaomi experienced severe fluctuations during the day, with several put certificates earning over 70%.
As of market close, the total market turnover reached 406.4 billion HKD, with all warrants and certificates combined trading 22.2 billion HKD, accounting for 5.5% of the total market turnover, of which long positions accounted for 3.7% and short positions 1.8%. All warrants saw a net outflow of 0.11 billion HKD.
UBS Group: The budget has a slightly positive effect on the property market and retail Industry. Lowered the Target Price of Longfor Group (00823.HK) to 37.4 yuan.
UBS Group released a report stating that the new fiscal budget for the coming year is slightly positive for the Residence and retail Industry. Contrary to the bank's previous expectations, the Hong Kong government did not relax the restrictions on residential investments under the Capital Investment Entrant Scheme. However, the government has decided to reduce the stamp duty on property transactions valued between 3 million and 4 million HKD from the maximum of 1.5% to only 100 HKD, saving home buyers up to 0.06 million HKD. In 2024, residential transactions valued between 3 million and 4 million HKD will reach 7,600, accounting for 15% of the total market. The bank believes that the new policy will stimulate low-end Trade, which will be Bullish for both the New Territories and the S unit market.
Daily Bull and Bear | The net Outflow of good positions in the Hang Seng Index is 0.2 billion Hong Kong dollars! The night futures slightly fell to 23,652 points; Meituan's stock price surged nearly 10% yesterday, with the best bull certificates making a
As of market close, the total market turnover was 370.1 billion Hong Kong dollars, with a total turnover of 22.8 billion Hong Kong dollars for all warrants and bull-bear certificates, accounting for 6.2% of the total market turnover, of which the long positions represented 3.5% and the short positions 2.7%. The net inflow of funds for all warrants was 356.2 billion Hong Kong dollars.
The government has temporarily suspended the sale of commercial land, according to Jones Lang LaSalle: this allows the market to digest existing supply and wait for an economic recovery.
The government announced the latest budget today (26th). Alex Barnes, Managing Director and Head of the Commercial Department at Jones Lang LaSalle Hong Kong, stated that currently, there are about 14 million square feet of Grade A office space vacant in Hong Kong. An additional 7.3 million square feet of new commercial buildings will be completed from this year to 2029, making it inevitable for the vacancy rate to face upward pressure. The government's suspension of the sale of commercial land will allow the market more time to digest the existing supply and wait for the economy to improve.
Link REIT (00823.HK) Fund has appointed the head of the Australia investment department to expand the Australia investment Business.
Link Real Estate Partners (LREP), the fund business of Link Asset Management (00823.HK), announced the appointment of Julian Menegazzo as the Head of the Australia Investment Department. He will be based in Sydney, responsible for driving the development of the Australia investment business and implementing a comprehensive investment strategy in the region, reporting to LREP's CEO and Link Group's Chief Investment Officer John Saunders. Information shows that LREP will be committed to leveraging Link's experience and scale in the Real Estate sector to provide.
Major Bank Ratings | Goldman Sachs: Maintains the forecast for a 5% rise in Hong Kong property prices this year, while lowering the office rental forecast.
On February 25, Gelonghui reported that Goldman Sachs published a research report, maintaining its forecast for a 5% rebound in Hong Kong property prices this year, and lowering its office rental forecast from an expected increase of 2% to a further decrease of 5%. It agreed with market views that the Residence Sector would be the first to hit bottom, but was relatively less negative on the Hong Kong retail market, expecting monthly sales trends to stabilize and record year-on-year growth in the coming months. The bank adjusted its earnings per share forecasts for covered companies for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026, varying from a decrease of 8% to an increase of 23%, and adjusted Target Prices from a decrease of 13% to an increase of 11%. The bank also reviewed Hong Kong Property Stocks in advance.
J.P. Morgan: LINK REIT (00823) is the top choice in Hong Kong's Real Estate Industry, while avoiding WHARF REIC (01997).
Overall, the performance may be mediocre, but the guidance regarding capital circulation (such as land use, Swire, and Link REIT) may be a highlight, while also paying attention to the possible improvement in Luxury Goods retail sales in the mainland that may occur in the second quarter (related to HANG LUNG PPT).
Major bank ratings | JPMorgan: The top picks in Hong Kong Real Estate Industry are Link REIT, SWIREPROPERTIES, and SINO LAND.
On February 21, Galon Hui reported that JPMorgan stated that most Hong Kong Real Estate companies and Comprehensive Enterprises will announce their results in the next six weeks, with most companies expected to see annual declines in profits due to reduced property development profits and declining rental income, especially in office buildings and Luxury Goods retail. In terms of dividends, the bank sees the most certainty with SINO LAND and SWIREPROPERTIES; meanwhile, CKH HOLDINGS, Cheung Kong, and WHARF REIC may face downside risks if their earnings per share fall short of expectations. Overall, the performance may be unremarkable, but the guidance on capital cycles (such as land companies, SWIREPROPERTIES, and Link REIT) might be.
Bank of America Securities: The impact of sentiment in the Residence market is manageable. It is expected that CKH HOLDINGS (01113) and CKH HOLDINGS (00001) will reduce their annual dividends.
Bullish on SWIREPROPERTIES (01972) and LINK REIT (00823), believing they have a sustainable high dividend yield.
"The Big Investment" by Bank of America Securities predicts that CKH HOLDINGS (01113.HK) and CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK) will reduce last year's dividend, while the liquidity of Shanghai New World (00017.HK) is a concern.
Bank of America Securities issued a research report indicating that some Hong Kong developers are facing liquidity constraints, raising market concerns about the impact of defaults on the Industry. However, the firm generally expects that the likelihood of defaults among major developers in Hong Kong over the next two years is low, but if defaults occur, the impact on sentiment in the Residence market is still believed to be manageable. However, financing provided by Banks to the Real Estate Industry may tighten further, and valuations of investment properties may also come under pressure. Additionally, the firm anticipates that in the upcoming budget announcement, government policies regarding Real Estate will be relatively limited. The firm is Bullish on SWIREPROPERTIES (01972).
S&P expects the rent of Grade A office buildings in the local market to decrease by 8% to 10% this year, returning to the levels of 2012.
The Crediting rating Institutions Standard & Poor's issued a report indicating that office rents in Hong Kong will continue to decline this year, and valuations will follow suit. Major real estate developers holding Grade A office properties face the impact of property valuation adjustments. Institutions state that Hong Kong real estate developers must confront economic uncertainties and competition from newly completed office buildings, and owners are expected to take more measures to retain tenants, including offering larger rent reductions during lease renewals. Institutions predict that Grade A office rents in Hong Kong will drop by 8 to 10% this year, a decline greater than the originally estimated 5%, implying that rents will revert to 2012 levels. The situation of problematic owners selling office buildings may increase, even among the most stable.
Wang Guolong: The Retail Trade continues to face challenges. Link REIT (00823.HK) demonstrates its Asset Management strength to help merchants through difficult times.
Link REIT (00823.HK) held its annual spring gathering today (12th), with around 300 representatives from over 100 Link merchants invited to participate. Link REIT reiterated its commitment to support merchants and hopes to jointly tackle the extremely challenging market environment in the current Retail Trade sector. Group CEO Wang Guolong stated that this year's event had the highest participation ever, fully demonstrating the strong partnership between Link REIT and its merchants. He acknowledged that the local Retail Trade continuously faces challenges, with total retail sales recording negative year-on-year growth for the past ten months, and understands the pressure merchants are facing. Link REIT will continue to focus on living.
DBS: The Education industry brings opportunities to the real estate sector, preferring to invest in land and Link REIT (00823.HK).
DBS published a Research Report indicating that the Hong Kong government is positioning the city as an international higher education center, while also doubling the quota for non-local student admissions at government-funded institutions to 40%. The bank found that the number of non-local students in higher education institutions has significantly increased over the past three academic years, with a compound annual growth rate of up to 16%. DBS mentioned that local universities are purchasing various commercial and hotel properties and converting them into education centers and student residences to support the expansion prompted by the increase in non-local student enrollment. With the thriving development of the student housing market, more investors are transforming existing hotels and residence properties into student dormitories.
DBS Hong Kong collaborates with Link REIT (00823.HK) to identify over 100 low-carbon merchants.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) announced the launch of the second phase of the "Low Carbon Reward Program" to strengthen its commitment to promoting sustainable development in Hong Kong. The program, in collaboration with Link REIT (00823.HK), has successfully recognized over 100 stores as "low carbon merchants" in the first phase. DBS Hong Kong stated that the low carbon reward program aims to foster a diverse ecosystem that encourages sustainable practices while creating more revenue opportunities for merchants. DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Executive Director and Head of Retail Banking Business and Wealth Management Credit Cards and Personal Loans, Yip Hoi Ying, mentioned that the collaboration with Link not only supports SMEs.
UBS Group's investment rating and Target Price for local real estate and House Rental Companies (Table).
UBS Group published a research report, listing the investment ratings and Target Prices for local real estate and House Rental Companies as follows: Stocks | Investment Rating | Target Price (HKD) KERRY PPT (00683.HK) | Buy | 19 HKD -> 18.8 HKD SHK PPT (00016.HK) | Buy | 90 HKD Henderson Land (00012.HK) | Buy | 26 HKD -> 25.7 HKD SINO LAND (00083.HK) | Buy | 10.5 HKD CK ASSET (01113.HK) | Neutral | 31 HKD Kowloon Investment.
[Brokerage Golden Stocks] Brokerages indicate that the upward trend of Hong Kong stocks remains strong and the list of golden stocks for February has been released (with list attached).
Jinwu Finance | Looking back at January, the Hong Kong stock market successfully outperformed the A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.8% in January and the Hang Seng TECH Index rising 5.7%. In contrast, the SSE Composite Index fell 3% while the Chinext Price Index decreased by 3.6%. Moving to February, during the Spring Festival, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, but then announced a one-month delay for the tariffs on Mexico on the evening of February 3. The unpredictability of the Trump administration's tariff policies has created uncertainty in the market. Since February, U.S. stocks have shown fluctuating performance, but the Hong Kong stocks have remained unaffected, with U.S. Treasury yields stabilizing and AI companies like DeepSeek emerging.
Morgan Stanley: Expect a 5% decline in Hong Kong retail sales in 2025, preference for related Property/A-REIT stocks, particularly LINK REIT (00823).
The action is to rate Link REIT as "Shareholding", while maintaining "Shareholding" for WHARF REIC and Hysan Development.
Daihang Daihua Jixian: The real estate markets in China and Hong Kong need further policy support. Preferred stocks include Runzhi (01109.HK), Xindi (00016.HK), and Lanjun (00823.HK).
Daiwa Capital Markets published a report indicating that during this year's Spring Festival, the Real Estate sales in China and Hong Kong both weakened. Another important development related to the Spring Festival is the management changes at Vanke (02202.HK), which the firm believes cannot eliminate the risks faced by Vanke due to the financial constraints of Shenzhen Metro Group. The growth of tourist numbers in Hong Kong during the Spring Festival was relatively low. Daiwa believes that further policy support is needed, and this is possible. The firm maintains its respective Industry ratings, with domestic real estate being "Shareholding", Hong Kong real estate development being "In line with the market", and the Hong Kong rental industry being "Shareholding". The preferred stock is CHINA RES LAND (01109).