M6ANEXT Micro AUD/USD Futures Next Contract
- 0.6486
- -0.0034-0.52%
Micro AUD/USD Futures Next Contract News
Australian Dollar Extends Gains Despite Mixed PMI
Analysts: The Reserve Bank of australia will obtain sufficient employment data to justify the rationale for interest rate cuts.
On November 22, Grawonghui reported that Gareth Aird, the economic manager of the Commonwealth Bank of australia, stated that there are increasing signs that australia's unemployment rate does not need to rise from its current level, and the necessary data to justify interest rate cuts can be obtained from the australian federal government. Aird expects an interest rate cut in February next year, as wage growth has slowed and is consistent with inflation returning to the target range of 2%-3%. Over the past six months, the unemployment rate has hovered around 4.1%, and Aird still believes that a higher unemployment rate may not be necessary to bring inflation back to the target. He added that,
According to the "Economy," Australia's November S&P manufacturing PMI preliminary value rose to 49.4, reaching a six-month high, while the services PMI fell to 49.6, marking a ten-month low.
S&P Global announced that after seasonal adjustment, Australia's November S&P manufacturing PMI initial value rose from 47.3 to 49.4, reaching a six-month high. The manufacturing output index initial value also rose from 44.7 to 47.9, marking a six-month high as well. The service sector PMI initial value for the same month dropped from 51 to 49.6, falling into contraction and reaching a ten-month low. Australia's composite PMI initial value in October fell from 50.2 to 49.4, also entering contraction and hitting a ten-month low. During this period, private enterprises in Australia only slightly increased hiring, and idle capacity remained evident. External demand was weak, and new business growth slowed. Although the operation environment...
RBA Has the Labor Market Data It Needs to Justify a Rate Cut, CBA Says -- Market Talk
Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Improves to 49.4 in November, Services PMI Eases to 49.6
AUD Can Fall Towards 0.6360/0.6340 – BBH
West Pacific Banks: The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates for the first time in May next year
Gelonghui, November 21｜Westpac is now forecasting that the Reserve Bank of australia will begin to cut interest rates in May next year, later than the previous prediction of February. The bank's chief economist, Luci Ellis, stated, "Similar to some predictions from peers, we expect the initial rate cuts to be somewhat ahead of schedule, likely occurring consecutively at the end of May and the beginning of July." This differs from the prior expectation of Westpac reducing rates once each quarter. However, Westpac still expects that by the end of next year, interest rates will decrease from the current 4.35% to a lower limit of 3.35%.
Westpac Scrubs February RBA Rate Cut Call, Now Tips May -- Market Talk
The australian dollar and new zealand dollar are striving to hold steady, with the australian central bank expected to cut interest rates for the first time as early as February next year.
As the dollar retraces part of its recent gains, the australian dollar and new zealand dollar held steady on Wednesday (November 20), briefly reaching a one-week high earlier and looking to extend their gains for the fourth consecutive trading day. The market is awaiting whom President-elect Trump will choose as Treasury Secretary, as well as the likelihood that this candidate will advance Trump's comprehensive tariffs and tax proposals, leading to a pause in the dollar's rise. The australian dollar continues to gain some support from a stable interest rate outlook, with the previous minutes from the reserve bank of australia indicating that it remains vigilant to the risks of rising inflation. jpmorgan's analyst wrote in a report: "Compared to macro data
Australia's Leading Index Moves Into Positive Territory in October
Australia's Consumer Spending Growth Eases in September Quarter, Trails Inflation
In October, the Westpac leading indicators for australia rose by 0.2% month-on-month, expected that the australian central bank will maintain the interest rate unchanged next month.
Australia's Westpac Bank announced that after almost no fluctuations in the past six months, the Westpac Leading Index in Australia increased by 0.2% in October. The six-month annualized growth rate, which reflects the trend of economic activity in the next three to nine months, turned positive from the previous -0.2 to 0.26. The data reflects further signs of improvement in Australia's future economic momentum. Westpac economist Ryan Wells expects that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the December monetary policy meeting. As for next year, it will be necessary to consider how close inflation needs to be to the target before moving the currency government to a less restrictive level.
Australia's RBA Still Hawkish; Govt Spending, Trump Tariffs Are Risks -- Market Talk
Australian Money Markets Settling on Later, Fewer RBA Cuts -- Market Talk
With inflation remaining high, the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia lowering interest rates this year seems bleak.
No urgent need to adjust cash interest rates.
Minutes of the australia Reserve Bank meeting: The current restrictive interest rates are appropriate.
The Reserve Bank of australia believes that the current policy settings are appropriate for lowering the still "too high" core inflation. At a meeting two weeks ago, the possibility of needing to cut interest rates, raise them, or maintain them at a high level for a longer period was discussed. In the minutes of the November 5 decision released on Tuesday (November 19) in Sydney, the Reserve Bank of australia stated: "The monetary policy of australia is assessed as restrictive, but to what extent remains uncertain, and broader financial conditions have eased in recent months." The Reserve Bank of australia's board noted that the staff forecasts released alongside the decision are based on a technical assumption that the mmf rate will be in 2025.
November Minutes Signal RBA's Openness to Easing, Says ANZ Research
RBA Reiterates Need for 'Sufficiently Restrictive' Policy in November Minutes
RBA November meeting minutes: Interest rates are at an appropriate level, discussions were held on both rate hike and rate cut options.
The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's November meeting show that committee members believe the current level of policy is suitable for reducing the still excessive core inflation. They discussed scenarios where interest rates may need to be lowered, raised, or maintained at high levels for a longer duration, while emphasizing vigilance regarding upward risks to inflation, believing that the bank's tolerance is very low in cases where prices remain persistently above target. The minutes mentioned that Australia faces three main overseas risks, including the possibility of significant changes in usa economic policy, the scale or composition of china's stimulus policy possibly differing from expectations, and the risk that government debt growth in australia may become unsustainable. However, the committee unanimously agreed to consider these matters.
Australia's Central Bank Remains Jittery About Inflation Risks, Global Uncertainty