Weekly Outlook | The Federal Reserve takes the lead as the last "Central Bank Super Week" of the year is approaching; China's economic data for November and important inflation data from the USA will soon be revealed.
Currently, the market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December, reaching as high as 97%. However, due to stronger data in November, the risk of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts in early 2025 has increased, making Powell's post-meeting remarks and the latest economic forecasts crucial.
2nm, is the winner already determined?
Taiwan Semiconductor's dominant position has raised concerns about its pricing power for the 2nm process. In the absence of viable competition, Taiwan Semiconductor has transformed from an 'effective' frontier monopolist into a true monopolist. This allows them to increase prices at will.
Next week will be the last "Central Bank Super Week" of this year, and 24-hour traders will have to work non-stop.
Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its last interest rate decision meeting of the year, followed by Japan, Nordic countries, the United Kingdom... By the close of business next Friday, at least 22 central banks globally will announce their interest rate decisions, representing a total of two-fifths of the global economy.
"The AI God" delivered a powerful speech: the era of "pre-training" dominated by computational power will end, the next generation belongs to "inference"; if machines have consciousness, then let them awaken!
Ilya Sutskever, former co-founder of OpenAI and founder of SSI, stated during his speech that the pre-training phase of AI model development is coming to an end. The future development of AI will focus on Asia Vets, synthetic data, and reasoning time computation. He elaborated on the immense potential of these three directions, for instance, synthetic data can overcome the limitations of real data volume, while reasoning time computation can enhance the efficiency and controllability of AI.
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