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The 'Trump trade' of the 2016 version completely reversed afterwards, what about this time?
After Trump's election victory, the US dollar, US stocks, and small cap stocks usually tend to strengthen. However, during Trump 1.0, from 2016 to 2020, the US dollar and small cap stocks performed poorly, failing to rise as expected, while the rise in US stocks was mostly attributable to the strength of technology stocks. Analysis suggests that the 'Trump trade' is not the same as 'Trump investment', it is more of a short-term market reaction rather than a long-term trend.
"How long can the Trump trade continue?"
Compared to other presidential candidates, the impact of Trump's victory is unique, but Wall Street should also be wary of the fading of this effect.
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Trump reportedly plans to narrow the range of Treasury Secretary candidates this week, with candidates from a Wall Street background taking the lead.
①According to media reports citing sources, usa President-elect Trump plans to narrow down the range of candidates for Treasury Secretary within this week, and is inclined to choose someone with a Wall Street background for this important position; ②After winning the US presidential election, there is close attention from the public on how he will form the cabinet for his second term. Treasury Secretary and Secretary of State are usually the positions where the US President prioritizes the selection of candidates.
Goldman Sachs: Trump's 'Super Week' ends, the US stock market will enter a rotation market.
Goldman Sachs traders expect that after the trading market driven by the US election ends, the forecast rotation pressure will continue to be a significant feature of the market, as investors put money into smaller market cap companies and seek opportunities in cyclical/inflation themes.
Wall Street outlook for "Trump 2.0": The first two years of presidency will have a "profound impact".
JPMorgan stated that if Trump adjusts policies on taxes, regulations, and cryptos, the first two years of his second term may be quite influential.
Buckle up! Xiao Mo: Trump 2.0 will have a significant impact in the first two years.
jpmorgan stated that if Trump makes policy changes in taxes, regulations, and cryptos after taking office, the first two years of Trump's second term could be quite influential. If the Republican Party manages to win a majority in both the House and the Senate at the same time, it means that his policy bills will sail through Congress unimpeded before the next midterm elections.
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"Trump trade" fizzled out, what is the market worried about?
The market is concerned that if Trump really fulfills his campaign promises, especially on tariff policy, the usa may see larger deficits and soaring inflation, immigrant workers being deported, which could lead to a significant decline in economic growth.
Market doubts policy difficult to implement, traders' enthusiasm for the "Trump trade" cools down.
After initially rushing into the 'Trump trade', some investors in certain asset classes are gradually lowering their enthusiasm, as they question whether Trump will pursue his ambitious tariff proposals as the President of the USA.
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Trump is making a comeback, Goldman Sachs has lowered economic growth expectations for countries in Europe such as Germany and the United Kingdom.
①Goldman Sachs predicts that Trump's protectionist policies will harm Europe's economy, especially Germany; ②Goldman Sachs has lowered its economic growth expectations for Europe, expecting trade tensions to affect European exports and economic growth; ③Trump's questioning of NATO's role may lead European countries to increase defense spending, affecting business confidence.
Trump's victory sparked a frenzy of rotation in US stocks: bank stocks soared, stock indices rose by more than 10%, energy stocks surged, and photovoltaic stocks collapsed.
Benefiting from expectations of relaxed financial regulation, major US banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley all rose by more than 10%; renewable energy stocks plummeted, with solar energy stocks like Sunrun falling by at least 10%; Bitcoin hitting a record high drove up the overall crypto concept stocks, with the largest US crypto exchange Coinbase closing up by 31%.
USA Election: The overall situation is settled, what lies ahead?
Trump leads in all 7 swing states. The Republican Party controls the Senate and is highly likely to control the House of Representatives. Such a significant lead indicates a rightward shift in the American political spectrum, with Republican political influence rising. American society may once again shift from 'pursuing fairness' to 'pursuing efficiency.'
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Goldman Sachs quick take on Trump's victory: will only slightly reduce taxes, limited impact of tariffs on the economy.
Goldman Sachs believes that if the Republican Party wins a slim majority in the House of Representatives, the expected tax reduction is only expected to account for a fraction of a percentage point of GDP, mainly targeting individual income taxes rather than corporate taxes; in terms of tariffs, automotive tariffs will become a focus and moderately drag on GDP; in terms of regulations, the Trump administration may take a more lenient approach.
Trump returns to the White House! Looking back at his previous term, which type of assets performed the best?
In the face of the upcoming "Trump 2.0" era, considering the similarities in his campaign policies with the previous term, investors may find insights from history: which type of assets performed best during Trump's first term?