Trump's reelection probability soaring + "economic soft landing", will the US bond market face severe turbulence?
USA bond yields saw the largest weekly increase in several weeks on Monday, with the 10-year treasury notes yield rising to 4.2%. The Chief Investment Officer of T. Rowe Fixed Income noted that with a slight rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the 10-year t-note yield will test the 5% threshold within six months.
Renowned 'Big Short' warns: If Harris wins, the US stock market could face heavy losses!
Morgan Stanley's chief US stock strategist said that the market is trying to bet in advance on a recurrence of Trump's victory in 2016, when small business confidence in the USA was positively affected to the greatest extent in at least 40 years.
How long can this rebound in the US stock market last? Deutsche Bank: may face four major obstacles.
Deutsche Bank believes that the S&P 500 index is expected to achieve annual gains of over 20% for two consecutive years, the first time since 1997-98; however, current high valuations, saturated growth expectations, geopolitical risks, and public debt issues pose four major obstacles to future market growth.
Don't mind the US election! Bank of America: The election results have little to no impact on US stocks.
①Bank of America's report stated that the outcome of the November US presidential election is unlikely to have any impact on the stock market; ②Bank of America strategist Sablamanixia expressed that in fact, the US stock market rarely cares about which party will control the White House. Instead, investors' focus should be entirely on corporate profit growth.
Express News | The probability of Trump winning on Polymarket has risen to 64.5%, leading Harris by nearly 30 percentage points.
Futu Morning Post | Record again! Nvidia's strong rise of over 4% hits a new high, market cap approaching Apple; bullish sentiment surging! Hedge funds panic-buying US stocks.
Multiple Fed officials have spoken out in support of gradual interest rate cuts, leading to a sharp drop in long-term US Treasury bonds; Latest polls: Trump and Harris are neck and neck in 7 key battleground states; Qualcomm has released a new version of its smart phone chip, shifting towards self-research.
Top 20 Turnover | nvidia rose more than 4% to hit a record high, with a market cap exceeding $3.5 trillion.
Tesla, ranked second in trading volume on Monday in the US stock market, fell by 0.84%, with a turnover of $10.317 billion; Coinbase, ranked 12th, fell by 2.95%, with a turnover of $2.697 billion; Boeing, ranked 14th, rose by 3.11%, with a turnover of $2.132 billion.
Closing: Dow falls more than 340 points, nvidia drives Nasdaq up.
In the early morning of the 22nd Beijing time, the U.S. stock market closed with mixed gains and losses on Monday, with the Dow falling more than 340 points. Nvidia hit a new high again.
Top economists: Investors concerned about stock market bubbles should invest in these areas
FX168 Financial News Agency (North America) News As the market soared to a series of new highs in 2024, many Wall Street analysts began warning of the emergence of a stock market bubble.
Fed's Powell: Supports "gradual" rate cuts, no reason to stop shrinking the balance sheet.
①Logan stated that due to various uncertainties in the economic environment, the Federal Reserve should remain cautious in cutting interest rates, and she supports adopting a "gradual" approach to rate cuts; ②Currently, liquidity in the market is still "very ample," and there is no need to stop balance sheet reduction quickly.
Year-end U.S. stock market rally approaching? Overly cautious investors may miss out on a good opportunity.
Investors who are highly concerned about potential risks in the coming weeks may be caught off guard if the most worrisome scenario does not materialize.
US stock early trading | The three major indexes show divergent trends, with nvidia's stock price up more than 2%, reaching a historical high; nuclear power stocks, donald trump concept stocks, etc., continue to rise, Oklo soaring over 13%, DJT up nearly
The market continues to focus on the US stock market's financial reports, in order to further determine the economic situation of the USA. The president of the Dallas Federal Reserve expressed support for a 'gradual' interest rate cut, stating that loose policies would help prevent excessive cooling of the job market.
Q3 Earnings Season 'off to a Good Start' as Profits, Revenue Rise, Oppenheimer Says
Trump's election as a certainty? How to outpace the allocation of major asset classes
If Trump is re-elected this time, Trump's trade will make a comeback, and the impact on A-shares will be similar, initially low and then high.
Investors are turning to bonds as Goldman Sachs is bearish on future returns of US stocks!
FX168 Financial News Agency (North America) - On Monday, October 21st, Goldman Sachs strategists stated that due to investors shifting towards bonds and other assets in search of better returns, the US stock market is unlikely to sustain its performance above the average level of the past decade.
In addition to the 'animal spirits,' what else does the US stock market need to continue rising?
Fluctuations in consumer sentiment and high valuations imply that the risks of US stocks will rise in the remaining time of this year. Investors should pay attention to whether analysts' forecasts for 2025 earnings are rising or falling.
Goldman Sachs warns: The decade-long high growth period of US stocks will end.
Goldman Sachs strategists expect the s&p 500 index to have an average annual nominal roi of only 3% over the next ten years, far below the 13% of the past decade.
US Stock Market Outlook | Intense US election! Wall Street fully bets on the 'Trump trade'; Is the sky the limit? Bank of America raises nvidia's target stock price: can it rise another 38%
International gold price breaks through $2,700! Golden industrial concept strengthens before the market opens; Apple's demand in China is picking up? Sales of iPhone 16 in the first three weeks before launch increased by 20% year-on-year; Cryptocurrency market sentiment is rapidly heating up! Bitcoin once approached $70,000.
Countdown to the election! Wall Street's smart money starts going all in on the 'Trump trade,' what do they smell?
Similar to 2016, the recent main drivers of the market rally come from regional banks, large banks, and the energy sector. Deutsche Bank believes that the main difference in market expectations between Trump and Harris is mainly reflected in the forex market. If Trump wins, the US dollar will strengthen. However, the market volatility brought by a red sweep may be even greater.
Afraid that US stocks are overvalued and hesitant to chase? Wall Street: These safe havens may be worth investors' attention.
Analysts say, "Looking at the US stock market now is like watching a clown blow up a balloon. When this huge bubble bursts, the scene will be very spectacular."