No Data
Express News | The path of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank may become less certain after March.
The ECB's interest rate decision this week focuses on five key issues under the shadow of Trump 2.0.
Is the "interest rate cut on Thursday" a done deal? How will Trump's return influence the European Central Bank's view on tariff risks? Where is the endpoint for interest rates? What impact will rising inflation have on decision-making? How will the response be if the Federal Reserve stops cutting rates? Under the shadow of tariff threats from the USA, the Eurozone may face a more complicated outlook amidst an already weak economy...
The "Five Questions" before the European Central Bank meeting: Is there a high probability of an interest rate cut in January and what happens afterward?
① The European Central Bank will hold its first policy meeting for 2025 from January 29 to 30, and the market expects the main deposit rate to be lowered by 25 basis points to 2.75%; ② Tariffs from the Trump administration may bring more uncertainty to the Eurozone economy, but the impacts of the tariffs have not yet reached Europe; ③ The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates four times this year, but it is taking a cautious stance on the pace of rate cuts while also paying attention to concerns about rising inflation.
This week's interest rate cut is almost certain! Europe's economy is weak, and the European Central Bank may reduce rates repeatedly.
Weak economic growth in the Eurozone will prompt the European Central Bank to continue lowering interest rates.
Lowering interest rate expectations! The eurozone's January composite PMI returns to expansion, and Germany's manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations.
The Eurozone economy showed signs of recovery at the beginning of the year, with the composite PMI rising above the neutral line in January, but inflation accelerated for the fourth consecutive month, reaching its fastest pace since April 2023. Business activity in Germany stabilized in January, with a reduced decline in export Business. The manufacturing PMI in France continued to shrink, but the rate of decline was the slowest since September of last year.
Survey: Sticky inflation may sweep across Europe, Lagarde may be feeling "overwhelmed."
According to a survey of economists, concerns about inflation in Europe have resurfaced, raising doubts about whether the European Central Bank should pause or stop interest rate cuts in the spring; Economists surveyed have maintained their basic prediction of four rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the European Central Bank in 2025, but there is a divergence regarding the timing of these cuts; Respondents believe that USA policy is seen as the most severe threat to economic growth in the eurozone.